SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 0.4 million metric tons (MMT) to 43.7 MMT. In the previous season, Russia shipped 40.8 MMT. The revision reflects improved crop prospects, though exports in the first months of the season have been historically weak.

The forecast was revised following SovEcon’s increase of its 2025 wheat crop estimate to 85.4 MMT, up from 83.6 MMT in July (82.6 MMT in 2024). 

Despite the relatively favorable crop outlook, SovEcon remains cautious about raising its forecast further amid a sluggish start to the export campaign. Wheat shipments in July–August are estimated at 6.1 MMT, down sharply from 9.9 MMT last year and a five-year average of 8.1 MMT. September shipments are also expected to remain at historically low levels.

Looking ahead, importers may increasingly turn to Argentina and Australia, where crop prospects are improving. In September, Australia’s agriculture ministry raised its 2025/26 wheat production forecast to 33.8 MMT from 30.6 MMT in June, 22% above the 10-year average. Argentina’s crop could exceed 20 MMT, compared with 18.6 MMT last year.

Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon, said: "Russia needs to capture new demand to lift exports in the coming months. FOB values are easing, but buyers remain cautious, waiting for deeper cuts and eyeing the new Southern Hemisphere crop. It’s hard to be bullish wheat right now."