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SovEcon cuts Ukraine grain export forecasts, but sees rebound in 2026/27

22 May 20262 min reading

Black Sea consultancy SovEcon lowered its 2025/26 Ukraine wheat and corn export forecasts due to slow shipments, while projecting a sharp rebound next season on the back of unusually high carry-in stocks.

SovEcon has lowered its 2025/26 Ukraine grain export forecasts again, citing persistently slow shipments of wheat and corn. However, the Black Sea consultancy expects a much faster export pace in 2026/27, as large stocks carried over from the current season help offset a smaller crop.

The consultancy reduced its 2025/26 corn export forecast by 1.0 million tons to 23.0 million tons, while its wheat export forecast was cut by 0.2 million tons to 13.2 million tons. According to SovEcon, shipments have remained weak throughout the season, with no clear signs of acceleration.


For 2026/27, SovEcon projects Ukraine’s corn exports at 26.7 million tons and wheat exports at 21.2 million tons. The stronger outlook reflects a sharp build-up in stocks this season — an unusual situation for Ukraine, which has historically exported most of its available grain.

The new-crop outlook remains broadly stable. SovEcon left its wheat crop estimate unchanged at 23.6 million tons and its corn crop estimate at 28.1 million tons. Weather conditions have generally been favorable, with good winter snow cover and adequate soil moisture supporting crop development. At the same time, fertilizer and fuel supplies remain challenging, limiting yield potential, particularly for corn. 

“Ukraine is heading into next season with an unusual combination of smaller production and much larger carry-in stocks. That should allow wheat and corn exports to rebound sharply even without a bigger crop,” said Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon.

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