SovEcon has lowered its 2025 Russian wheat production forecast to 78.7 million metric tons, marking the smallest crop since 2021, as poor winter wheat conditions weigh on yields. CEO Andrey Sizov warns that deteriorating crop conditions and a tight global supply are not yet fully reflected in market prices. 

SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has lowered its 2025 Russian wheat production forecast by 3.0 million metric tons (MMT) to 78.7 MMT. If realized, this would be the smallest wheat crop since 2021, when production totaled 76.0 MMT, and significantly below the five-year average of 88.2 MMT.

Winter wheat production is now estimated at 50.7 MMT, a sharp reduction of 3.6 MMT from previous projections. The decline in winter wheat production reflects a lower forecast for winter wheat yield, now projected at 3.4 metric tons per hectare (mt/ha), down from 3.5 mt/ha in November. The pre-harvest winter wheat area has also been reduced to 14.9 million hectares (mln ha), down from 15.4 mln ha, due to expectations of higher winterkill losses.

 In contrast, spring wheat production has been revised upward by 0.6 MMT to 27.9 MMT, driven by expectations for a larger planted area, now forecast at 13.3 mln ha, up from 13.0 mln ha previously. The total wheat area for 2025 is estimated at 28.2 mln ha, down from 28.5 mln ha in 2024 and significantly below 29.8 mln ha in 2023. Meanwhile, the 2024 wheat crop forecast has been revised slightly higher, up by 0.5 MMT to 81.9 MMT.

 Andrey Sizov, CEO of SovEcon, noted the concerning developments, stating: “Crop conditions in Russia, the world’s #1 wheat exporter, are the worst in decades. The global wheat supply and demand balance sheet remains tight. We believe these factors are not yet priced in by the market.”