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Russian wheat exports maintain pace

16 May 20226 min reading

Atria Brokers

While all world is focusing on stopping crude oil imports from Russia, the invading country still has funds for war continuation. One of the sources, from which these funds are coming, is continued Russian wheat export. Moreover, during the week up to 1 May, Russian wheat export reached its peak since the start of the war on 24 February 2022. This question is much harder to “sanction”, as depending nations cannot just stop eating. Moreover, we all know very well, that Russia is itself the country, who is used to playing with “sanctions” imposition for wheat export from its side, ruling the world food safety.

From the start of the war on 24 February 2022 and till the end of Apr 2022, Russian wheat export reached over 4 MMT. It is alarming, as it is twice more than during the same time last year. Moreover, when starting negotiating business, most traders talk about Russian grain offers and how cheap they are in comparison to other origins. In the best case, the Russian factor is used as a tool of price pressure in negotiations. In the worst case, importers are indeed buying Russian grain.


According to AgriCensus, “during October-February 2021/22, Russian wheat was traded $310-340/MT FOB Novorossiisk. After the war, the price jumped to $430 and at the start of May 2022 it became $390/MT FOB Novorossiisk”. Russia has exported 4 MMT wheat in March-April 2022, which is about 1.6 bln USD, given the price range during the period which stranded at $380-400/mt FOB on offer side and trades being signed at few dollars below that. At the same time, the export tax paid during the period was at 87-120 USD range per tonne, thus the rough idea of the amount that went directly into the country’s budget is at 400 MLN USD. The country’s budget goes for a huge list of purposes, including the financing of the war in Ukraine.


Currently, the Russian authorities calling for the world to avoid sanctions for the agriculture, as it is one of the key suppliers in the world. But they forgot that the crisis has started because of its own decision to invade Ukraine, and thus blocking of another key world supplier of food, along with itself as both countries are exporting from Black Sea. Plus, it was predictable that the Western response on the invasion will affect the economy of the country very hard. 

So, while Russian government is manipulating by trying to find who is guilty for the food crises growing in African and Middle countries, it is the only one who can quickly prevent it by ending the war.


HIDDEN GOAL OF RUSSIAN WAR

When starting writing this article the name of the working file was not “War”, but “Food”. Many people all over the world are already bored with the war which Russia started in Ukraine. First, it looked like 24 hours TV show, but now it became so fierce and ugly, that very often people, who are not connected, starting to block their minds from this information. Seeing some donation buttons “Donate to Ukraine” they skip it very fast. Meanwhile, lots of Ukrainians continue to lose each day their home and relatives.

The true aim of the war, which Russia started in Ukraine is just to control over the world and make more people slaves. Slaves are people who work for food. When food costs so much, as it became last 2 years – it is slavery. Normally a very heavy part of the standard budget of the family goes for bread, meat, eggs and cooking oil. People, who are not connected with agriculture, forget from what these things derive and here is a short explanation.

Bread = Wheat

Meat, eggs = Corn, Barley

Cooking oil = Sunflower oil

Europeans will tell: “We don’t use sunflower oil, we use olive all time”. Guys, please, look at the wrapping of all cookies at supermarkets. All this is the kind of information, which we don’t normally give a big role, but now it is becoming a matter of world survival.

RUSSIA RULES WORLD FOOD PRICES

All grain-producing countries rule prices at some value. But Russia is coping with this best. At the beginning of March 2022, Russia blamed several major logistics companies that they have refused to carry Russian fertilizers. But it was Russia, who indeed from 1 December 2021, introduced quotas for the export of nitrogen and complex nitrogen fertilizers from Russia until 31 May 2022 as one of the measures to curb rising food prices. Moreover, on 2 February 2022 Russia banned the export of ammonium nitrate till 1 April 2022 due to increased demand for this product. On 27 April, Russia extended quotas on fertilizer exports from Russia until 31 August 2022.


On the 24 of March, the US put fertilizers to the list of vital products agreed for import. Contrary, on 28 March 2022, Russia has announced an extension of the ban on the export of ammonium nitrate for one month, until 1 May 2022. It is May already. Russian mass media spreading news: “Russian Foreign Ministry: Russia will continue to faithfully fulfill its obligations to supply agricultural products and fertilizers”.

Similar to the above, Russia blames West for the price increase for food, following the sanctions against Russia. We will not exclude, that the next info will be exaggeration, but sometimes it is needed to exaggerate in order to show how the situation looks indeed. For the last few seasons, prices stopped showing their seasonal route and started developing unpredictably. Of course, there were still weather factors, COVID, but most of the influence was coming from Russia. Looks like it was juggling and polygoning the world for how much it is sensitive and depending on it. In the 21/22 season, Russia introduced floating grain export duties and grain export quotas, even in spite of its wheat crop was the 3rd largest ever. Its farmers were mostly losing money due to the duties, while other countries' farmers took finance profit.

The Russian war in Ukraine is another attempt of Russia to manipulate the world and its dependence on it. Cutting Ukraine from the sea is making slaves from the leading importers, who are deprived of their right to choose. They have no other option, but to buy cheap Russian wheat. But it is Russia who spooked prices by the war.

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