Russian farmers are selling grain and oilseeds at an unprecedented pace, a sign of mounting financial stress that could continue to pressure both domestic and global markets, according to Black Sea consultancy SovEcon.

Official data from Rosstat show that grain sales reached 11.0 million tonnes (MMT) in September, the highest monthly figure ever recorded. Oilseed sales hit 1.7 MMT, also a record for September and matching the all-time high set in 2020, before sunflower seed export taxes were introduced.

In October, grain sales totaled 9.3 MMT, the strongest figure for that month since 2022, when 9.9 MMT were sold after a record crop. Oilseed sales jumped to 3.0 MMT, the second-highest monthly result on record, just shy of the all-time high of 3.1 MMT in December 2023.

LOANS, PLANTING COSTS AND WEAKER INCOME DRIVE FORCED SELLING

SovEcon links this acceleration in farmer selling directly to deteriorating margins and tighter cashflow. The consultancy estimates that pre-tax income for grain and oilseed producers reached 67 billion rubles in January–August 2025, based on an exchange rate of USDRUB = 78.6. That represents a 25% drop compared with the same period a year earlier. With profits under pressure, many producers are being pushed to sell:

• To repay outstanding loans, and
• To finance winter planting and ongoing input costs.

The result is a wave of grain and oilseed hitting the market in a relatively short time frame.

Rising farmer sales have fed through into domestic prices. In European Russia, the average price for 12.5% protein milling wheat fell to 13,600 rubles per tonne by mid-November, down around 7% from early August. Sunflower seed prices eased to 35,675 rubles per tonne, roughly 2% below their early-season peak.

“We expect farmers to keep selling stocks at an accelerated pace in the coming months, adding pressure to domestic and global markets. The sector’s financial situation is likely to deteriorate further in the coming years as long as current export restrictions remain in place,” said Andrey Sizov, Head of SovEcon.

2025 WHEAT FORECAST REVISED UP

Against this backdrop, SovEcon has raised its 2025 Russian wheat production forecast by 0.8 MMT to 88.6 MMT. The upgrade is driven primarily by stronger-than-expected yields in inland regions:

• Siberia: +0.4 MMT, where harvesting is nearly complete and yields are at or near record highs;
• Volga: +0.2 MMT;
• Ural: +0.2 MMT, with solid yields through the end of the campaign.

However, much of this additional production is located far from seaports, limiting its immediate export potential.

By contrast, southern Russia – the country’s main export hub on the Black Sea – has delivered another weak harvest, compounding logistical and policy constraints on shipments. “Most of the recent crop gains came from regions far from export ports, while the South – Russia’s main export hub – delivered another weak harvest, which remains a challenge for the 2025/26 campaign. As a result, Russian wheat shipments stayed below average until the past several weeks,” Sizov noted.

EARLY LOOK AT 2026

SovEcon has also released its first forecast for Russia’s 2026 wheat crop, pegging production at 83.8 MMT. The baseline projection assumes:

• A wheat area of 26.3 million hectares,
• Down from 26.9 million hectares in the current season.

Alongside the central estimate, the consultancy outlined two alternative scenarios:

• Optimistic scenario: 87.9 MMT, implying favourable weather and yield outcomes;
• Pessimistic scenario: 79.8 MMT, reflecting potential weather or policy shocks.

Beyond wheat, SovEcon made marginal adjustments to its outlook for other key Russian grains:

• The 2025 barley crop estimate has been raised by 0.2 MMT to 19.3 MMT.
• The corn forecast has been lowered by 0.2 MMT to 12.7 MMT.

Overall, total grain production in 2025 is now projected at 135.3 MMT, up 0.8 MMT from last month’s forecast.