SovEcon, a leading Black Sea grain consultancy, has raised its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest to 87.8 million metric tons (MMT), up from 87.2 MMT. The revision reflects record yields in Siberia.

The barley forecast remains unchanged at 19.0 MMT, while the corn estimate has been lowered to 12.9 MMT from 13.4 MMT. Total grain and legume production is now projected at 134.5 MMT, compared with 134.9 MMT previously.

The wheat upgrade is almost entirely due to Siberia (+0.6 MMT), where yields have reached record levels. SovEcon believes that early snowfall is unlikely to materially affect the harvest, noting that combining can continue even with several centimeters of snow on the ground.

The corn forecast was reduced due to declining yields in the Central region, which fell from near-record levels of around 10 t/ha early in the harvest to roughly 8 t/ha. This decline has been partly offset by stronger results in the South and record yields in the Volga Valley.

Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon, said: “Siberia’s record yields are helping offset earlier losses in the South. However, the impact on near-term exports will be limited, as the region is far from ports.”