With rising global demand and shifting trade dynamics, the inaugural Russian Durum Day spotlighted Russia’s growing ambitions in the durum wheat market and its potential to become a key supplier for the global pasta industry. The country has set a target of 5 million tons of durum wheat production by 2030, with 1 million tons allocated for domestic use and the remainder earmarked for export.

Moscow welcomed the inaugural Russian Durum Day Conference on March 20, 2025, marking the country’s first international event dedicated exclusively to durum wheat production and trade. The event brought together over 130 delegates representing 72 companies from 20 Russian regions and four countries—Turkey, Italy, Algeria, and Kazakhstan—to explore opportunities and address challenges in the global durum wheat and pasta sectors.

Planned as an annual platform, the conference aims to strengthen dialogue among government officials, international experts, scientists, and industry leaders. This year’s discussions focused on boosting Russia’s presence in the global durum market, which reached a record 2.0 million tons (mt) of production in 2024—although quality issues and trade barriers remain significant obstacles.

Mikhail Kurashov, Grain and Flour Purchasing Manager at Barilla Russia, delivered a keynote presentation on global durum wheat trends. He noted that world production reached 35.3 mt in the 2024/25 season, up 11.4% year-on-year, but carry-over stocks declined by 31.6%, leaving the market “fragile.”

Among the notable dynamics:

• North Africa’s imports are expected to rise, with Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco projected to import 3.6 mt collectively.
• A strong harvest in the EU has exerted downward pressure on prices, with Italian durum dropping to €387.6/ton.

Russia is becoming a key supplier to North Africa, particularly Tunisia and Algeria, with 636,000 tons exported in 2023/24. However, access to the European market has been blocked by the EU’s €148/ton tariff on Russian durum, imposed in July 2024. Domestically, only 28% of Russia’s 2024 harvest met premium quality grades, impacted by wet weather that caused low falling numbers and black germ issues.

Kurashov outlined Russia’s strategic goals: “We aim to boost production to 2.0–2.5 mt annually, expand exports to 1.0–1.5 mt, and invest in breeding high-protein varieties.” He also emphasized the need to lift export restrictions during non-drought years and to expand the share of winter durum to mitigate climate risks.

NORTH AFRICA’S RISING DEMAND

Ahmed Merdouh, CEO of PhytoBioChem, highlighted the growing import needs of North Africa, driven by population growth and stagnant domestic output. In 2024, Algeria, the continent’s second-largest wheat importer, imported 2.0 mt of durum wheat, far exceeding its 1.5 mt domestic production. With a self-sufficiency target set for 2025, Algeria is actively seeking new suppliers—including Russia.

RUSSIA’S PRODUCTION AMBITIONS

Maria Shostak, Director of the Altai branch of the Federal Center for the Assessment of Safety and Quality of Agricultural Products, reported that 71% of Russia’s 2024 durum wheat harvest came from the Volga and Ural Federal Districts. The Ministry of Agriculture has set a goal to reach 5 mt of durum wheat production by 2030, with 1 mt allocated for domestic needs and the rest for export. Early in 2025 (January–February), Russia exported 123,000 tons of grain to six countries, up sharply from 27,000 tons to three nations during the same period last year.

KAZAKHSTAN’S DURUM BOOM

Evgeny Karabanov of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan reported a 91% surge in Kazakhstan’s durum wheat production, reaching 1.02 mt in the 2024/25 season, thanks to expanded acreage and higher yields. However, only 25% of the crop met premium standards—down from 42% in 2022.

Kazakhstan’s durum wheat exports totaled 470,000 tons, with Turkey, Poland, and Russia as top buyers. Yet, sanctions and logistical hurdles continue to limit access to European markets. Meanwhile, the country’s pasta production rose to 179,000 tons, reflecting growing domestic processing capacity.

TURKEY RISES AS GLOBAL POWER IN PASTA AND DURUM WHEAT MARKETS

During the Russian Durum Day conference, Namık Kemal Parlak, Editor-in-Chief of Miller Magazine, delivered a comprehensive presentation on the developments in Turkey’s pasta industry and durum wheat market. He emphasized Turkey’s growing role as a global player in both pasta production and durum wheat cultivation. Parlak highlighted that Turkey is now competing with Italy for the global leadership in pasta exports. Over the past decade, Turkey’s share in global pasta exports has shown a steady upward trend, reaching 26% in 2023. There are currently 25 pasta factories operating in the country, with a total production capacity of 3 million tonnes, and an average annual output of 2 million tonnes. The economic value of the pasta sector, combining production and export capacity, is estimated at around $2 billion.

In terms of domestic consumption, Turkey recorded 630,000 tonnes in 2023, with per capita pasta consumption reaching 7.1 kilograms. On the export front, Turkey exported 1.4 million tonnes of pasta in 2024, earning $939.5 million in revenue. Although the volume of exports increased by 8%, the unit export value declined, dropping from $673 to $644 per tonne.

Looking ahead, Parlak noted that new investments in the sector are set to increase Turkey’s total pasta production capacity to 4 million tonnes by the end of 2026. With these new factories coming online, Turkey is poised to surpass Italy and become the country with the world’s largest pasta production capacity.

Touching on durum wheat production, Parlak shared that Turkey produced 4.6 million tonnes of durum wheat last year, supported by an increase in cultivated areas. For the 2025 harvest, production is expected to reach around 4 million tonnes, though he warned that if expected April rains do not materialize, the figure could fall to 3.5 million tonnes. More accurate forecasts will be available later in April.

Thanks to the rise in production, Turkey has undergone a remarkable transformation in its durum wheat trade balance, shifting from a net importer to an exporter over the past three years. In the 2019/20 season, Turkey imported 1.8 million tonnes of durum wheat due to drought. By 2023/24, the country exported the same volume.

Parlak concluded by underlining the disparity between Turkey and Italy in terms of export revenue, noting that while Italy exports only 500,000 to 600,000 tonnes more pasta annually, its revenue is nearly 4.5 times higher. Italian pasta commands prices exceeding $2,000 per tonne, whereas Turkey’s average stands at around $645 per tonne. He stressed the importance for Turkish pasta producers to focus on quality and branding in order to increase profitability and global competitiveness.