Russia is intensifying its efforts to strengthen its position in the global grain market, with plans to expand grain exports by 2030. During a high-level meeting on July 22, 2025, held in Chita, Trans-Baikal Territory, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut outlined the country's strategy to boost production and exports, with a particular focus on the underutilized agricultural potential of Siberia and the Far East.

The meeting followed an inspection of the Trans-Baikal Grain Railway Terminal—a strategically located logistics hub that will play a central role in Russia’s future grain export plans.

Prime Minister Mishustin opened the meeting by reaffirming the Russian government’s commitment to food security and the expansion of agricultural exports. “Russia accounted for 25% of global wheat exports last year and became the world’s top barley exporter in 2024,” he noted. “This demonstrates that our farmers not only meet domestic needs but also make a vital contribution to global food security.” He reiterated President Vladimir Putin’s directive to increase agricultural exports by 50% by 2030 compared to 2021 levels. Grain exports will play a key role in reaching this target.

RUSSIAN WHEAT REACHES 70 COUNTRIES

Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut provided a comprehensive update on grain production, export dynamics, and state support mechanisms. She confirmed that during the previous season, which ended on July 1, 2025, Russia exported 44 million tonnes of wheat and a total of 53 million tonnes of grain—a figure aligned with the country’s five-year average. For the new marketing year, Russia expects to export between 53 and 55 million tonnes of grain, including 43–44 million tonnes of wheat.

Russia currently exports grain to 108 countries, with wheat going to 70 of them. In the past year alone, Russia expanded its export reach to 11 new countries and resumed shipments to 7 others.

WHEAT OUTPUT EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 90 MT

Minister Lut noted that the 2025/26 season is off to a strong start despite adverse weather in some regions. Russia anticipates a total grain harvest of 135 million tonnes, including 88–90 million tonnes of wheat. Grain is currently planted across 46 million hectares, and the sowing season progressed without major disruptions.

GOVERNMENT RAMPS UP GRAIN PRODUCTION AID

Minister Lut emphasized the importance of government support in sustaining grain production and exports. This year alone:

• 10 billion roubles (approx. 110 million USD) have been allocated to directly support grain producers, including over 1.3 billion roubles (14.3 million USD) for Siberia and the Far East.
• 780 million roubles (8.6 million USD) in farming aid has been fully disbursed in these regions.
• The preferential lending programme—worth 18.6 billion roubles (204.6 million USD)—is the primary support mechanism for seasonal fieldwork.
• 2.4 billion roubles (26.4 million USD) were allocated to boost elite seed production and domestic breeding. As a result, domestically bred seeds now make up 77.5% of all grain seeds, up nearly 6 percentage points from last year.

GROWTH HUBS FOR RUSSIAN GRAIN

Russia is targeting a 25% increase in total grain production by 2030, with the national harvest projected to reach 170 million tonnes, including 80 million tonnes allocated for export. Within this broader strategy, Siberia and the Far East are expected to play a pivotal role, with their combined contribution projected to reach approximately 22 million tonnes. This growth will be made possible through the cultivation of new agricultural lands—an area where Siberia holds significant potential, already estimated to be twice that of Central Russia. To unlock this capacity, the government has launched a dedicated land development programme, alongside a separate state support initiative specifically tailored for Siberia and the Far East.

TRANS-BAIKAL TERMINAL: GATEWAY TO CHINA

A cornerstone of this logistics vision is the Trans-Baikal Grain Railway Terminal, which boasts a projected throughput capacity of 8 million tonnes. Located on a key transit route, it could handle up to 80% of Siberia’s surplus grain exports to China.

However, a key barrier remains: China’s high grain tariffs. Russia currently exports less than 1 million tonnes of grain to China under limited quotas. Negotiations for expanded, tariff-free quotas are ongoing, with cautious optimism drawn from past trade breakthroughs in pork exports.

EXPANDING TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE

During the meeting, Minister Lut presented an overview of Russia’s grain logistics framework:

• 88% of Russia’s grain exports are shipped via ports, with current transshipment capacity at over 77 million tonnes.
• Russia’s main export corridors include the Azov–Black Sea, Baltic, Caspian, and Far Eastern ports.
• The Government is investing in multimodal and river transport alternatives to reduce dependency on rail freight.

To support this, the government is:

• Subsidizing rail transport from Siberia to ports in the south and Baltic regions.
• Allocating over 8 billion roubles (approx. 88 million USD) in 2025 for rail logistics—up from the previous year.
• Planning a 50-million-tonne capacity increase in road and rail access to port infrastructure.

With Siberia positioned as the next growth frontier and the Trans-Baikal Terminal offering a potential gateway to East Asian markets, Russia is set to reinforce its status as a dominant force in global grain trade. As Oksana Lut concluded, the development of Siberia's grain potential is “not just an agricultural objective, but a strategic imperative” to help Russia meet its ambitious 2030 targets.