SovEcon, a leading consultancy specializing in Black Sea grain markets, has raised its 2026/27 Russian wheat crop forecast by 2.1 million metric tons (MMT) to 85.9 MMT, reflecting better-than-average crop conditions heading into late winter.

Soil moisture reserves were relatively high last autumn, and abundant snow cover is supporting favorable moisture availability at the start of the growing season. Farmers surveyed by SovEcon were generally optimistic about crop development and current weather conditions. The Agriculture Ministry estimates the share of crops in poor condition at a historically low 3%.

The revised forecast also reflects a 0.2 million hectare increase in projected pre-harvest winter wheat area to 15.8 million hectares (unchanged year-on-year), due to lower expected winterkill. Spring wheat area is seen at 10.7 million hectares, down from 11.1 million hectares last year.

SovEcon also raised its winter wheat yield outlook on favorable starting conditions. The estimated average yield for total wheat production increased to 3.24 t/ha from 3.19 t/ha (3.38 t/ha in 2025).

Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon, said: “Current weather conditions are favorable for the new crop. However, the riskiest window for winter wheat still lies ahead in March–May. In recent years, weather anomalies during this period have become more frequent. For example, the late cold snap in April–May 2024 damaged wheat in Russia’s South and triggered a roughly 30% rally in CBOT wheat within weeks.”