FAO’s new Food Outlook warns that the global food import bill will hit a fresh record in 2025, as lower cereal and sugar prices are more than offset by surging costs for coffee, cocoa, oils and other higher-value products. For grain-dependent importers, headline relief on cereals masks growing exposure to vegetable oil and broader cost risks.

According to the November 13 edition of FAO’s Food Outlook – Biannual report on global food markets, the global food import bill (FIB) is projected to reach USD 2.22 trillion in 2025, an increase of nearly 8 percent compared with 2024. This would mark a new all-time high and the second consecutive annual increase following a brief decline in 2023.

FAO notes that international prices for staple commodities such as cereals are slightly lower year on year. However, robust demand for higher-value products, even at elevated price levels, is pushing the overall import bill higher. In absolute terms, most of the increase is driven by high-income countries, where soaring import costs for coffee and cocoa dominate the picture.

In contrast, the sharpest percentage increases are expected in some of the most vulnerable country groups. For least-developed countries (LDCs), expenditures on animal and vegetable oil imports alone are forecast to jump by as much as 58 percent compared with 2024.

HIGHER-VALUE PRODUCTS OUTPACE STAPLES

Disaggregated by commodity groups, FAO finds that the 2025 increase in the global FIB is heavily concentrated in higher-value items:

Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices and related products:

• Global import value is expected to rise by 34.5 percent year on year, an increase of USD 65.2 billion.
• This is the largest annual jump in more than a decade, driven by record-high nominal prices amid tight global availabilities and poor short-term production prospects.

The price surge in these tropical products has been largely triggered by weather disruptions in key origins – notably Brazil, Indonesia and Viet Nam for coffee, and Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana for cocoa. While recent improvements in crop prospects in some regions have begun to ease coffee and cocoa prices, FAO underlines that the market remains tight and vulnerable to further shocks.

Other major product groups also show strong nominal growth in 2025.

Dairy products:

• Global dairy import values are projected to increase by 16.4 percent, or USD 20.9 billion.
• Prices have risen on the back of robust demand amid tight supplies, linked to erratic weather in key dairy regions, high production costs and localized animal disease outbreaks.

Oils and fats:

• The FIB for oils and fats is forecast to rise by 10.6 percent, equivalent to USD 16.7 billion.
• The main driver is persistently tight global vegetable oil export supplies, particularly reflecting subdued growth in palm oil production.

Animal protein and fresh produce:

• Global import bills for meat and fish are likely to increase by 8.4 percent and 9.6 percent, respectively.
• Fruits and vegetables are projected to see a 7.6 percent rise in import costs.
• These gains are supported by steady demand in high- and middle-income markets, despite the challenging macroeconomic backdrop.

CEREALS AND SUGAR: LOWER PRICES, BUT LIMITED RELIEF

For the grain trade and milling sector, the most relevant piece of news is that cereal import costs are expected to fall in aggregate:

• The global import bill for cereals in 2025 is anticipated to decline by around 3 percent, or USD 9.3 billion.
• The import bill for sugar is forecast to drop by nearly 9 percent, or USD 7.3 billion.

 FAO attributes these declines mainly to lower international prices, reflecting a comparatively comfortable supply situation across the main cereal complexes:

• Global production of wheat and coarse grains remains strong,
• Rice stocks are projected at or near record levels, underpinned by large crops in several key Asian producers,
• As a result, stock-to-use ratios for major cereals are seen improving, easing price pressure.

At the same time, FAO stresses that the cost of oilseed imports is expected to remain broadly stable at the global level, with substantial divergences between country groups.

WEATHER, FREIGHT AND GEOPOLITICS SHAPE THE 2025–26 OUTLOOK

FAO identifies several structural and short-term factors behind the 2025 projections:

• The lingering impact of El Niño has curtailed yields of tropical crops in South and Central America, West Africa and Southeast Asia, tightening supplies of cocoa and coffee in particular.
• Global freight rates have eased from their earlier peaks, but disruptions in the Red Sea route continue to lengthen shipping times and keep insurance premiums elevated.
• Broader macroeconomic and political factors – including climate variability, global economic conditions, input prices, exchange rate movements, trade policy changes, conflicts and geopolitical tensions – are still reshaping trade patterns and logistics flows.

Looking ahead to 2026, FAO suggests that a recovery in coffee and cocoa production, combined with further easing in logistics and freight costs, could help moderate the global food import bill. However, the organization warns that weather volatility, geopolitical uncertainty and tight financial conditions mean that the risk of persistently elevated import costs remains high, especially for vulnerable regions and low-income, grain-import-dependent economies.