The latest OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 projects steady growth in global cereal production, consumption, and trade over the next decade, driven mainly by yield improvements rather than land expansion. However, rising import dependence in Africa, Asia, and the Near East highlights the risks of greater exposure to global market volatility

Global cereal output is expected to rise 1.1% per year between 2025 and 2034, outpacing population growth and reaching record levels across wheat, maize, rice, and barley. The Outlook stresses that nearly 90% of production growth will come from yield improvements, while land use for cereals will expand only marginally.

Wheat: Global output will reach nearly 930 million tons by 2034, up from 793 million tons in the 2022-24 base period. The largest gains are projected in the Black Sea region (Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan), the European Union, and North America, reflecting strong investment in technology and competitiveness.

Maize: Production will climb to 1.38 billion tons by 2034, driven mainly by the United States, Brazil, Argentina, and China. Maize remains the fastest-growing cereal, fuelled by demand from animal feed and biofuels.

Rice: Output is forecast at 590 million tons by 2034, dominated by Asia, with India, China, Indonesia, and Southeast Asian exporters leading growth. Productivity gains will offset constraints in cultivated area.

Barley and other coarse grains: Production will see modest growth, reflecting stable feed demand and limited expansion in acreage.

Global Cereals Outlook 2025-2034 (OECD-FAO Projections)

ASIA AND AFRICA DRIVE GLOBAL GRAIN CONSUMPTION

Global cereal consumption will rise in line with production, reaching 3.2 billion tons by 2034, compared to 2.9 billion tons in 2022-24. Population growth and rising incomes in developing economies are the key drivers. Cereal demand will continue to be dominated by food use, followed by feed use. In 2034, 40% of all cereals will be directly consumed by humans, while 33% will be used for animal feed. Biofuels and other uses are projected to account for the remaining 27%.

ASIA AND AFRICA DRIVE FUTURE CEREAL DEMAND

Asia will account for 54% of the global increase in cereal demand over the next decade. Sub-Saharan Africa will also see strong food demand growth, reflecting rapid population expansion. High-income regions will see little growth, with stable per-capita consumption.

Wheat consumption is expected to be 11% higher in 2034 than in the base period. India and China are expected to account for 30% of this increase.  Globally, the increase in food consumption of wheat is driven by Asia, where wheat is the mainstay in diets for a large share of the population. In Africa, food use continues to expand beyond the traditional wheat consumers in North Africa, to Sub-Saharan Africa. 

Moreover, there is increasing demand for processed products that call for higher quality, protein rich wheat, produced in North America, Australia and, to a lesser extent, in the European Union and Russia. Countries in North Africa and Western and Central Asia, notably Egypt, Türkiye, and Iran, will remain major consumers of wheat with high levels of per capita consumption. 

GLOBAL GRAIN TRADE SET TO DEEPEN 

By 2034, nearly 20% of all cereals produced will be traded, reflecting deepening global interdependence. Wheat exports are expected to grow by about 21 Mt to 226 Mt by 2034. Russia is expected to maintain its position as the leading exporter, accounting for a quarter of global exports by 2034. Imports by the North African and the Near East regions are set to slightly increase their shares of total wheat trade over the next decade.

Maize exports are expected to grow by about 29 Mt to 210 Mt by 2034. The top four exporters–the United States, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine–will account for 91% of this increase. The United States will remain dominant, but Brazil and Argentina will gain further ground. China’s maize imports in 2034 are projected to decline by 20% from the base period level due to the country’s strategic reserve and trade policy, increased domestic production, and feed diversification. 

Global rice trade will climb from 53 million tons to 65 million tons, led by India and Thailand. Africa and Asia will remain the primary importers. Imports in African countries, where growth in demand continues to outpace production growth, are projected to increase significantly, by 53% from the base period.

KEY RISKS FOR GLOBAL GRAIN MARKETS 

According to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034, the future of global cereal markets is shaped by a complex mix of geopolitical, environmental, and policy-related risks. Grain trade remains particularly sensitive to Russia’s war against Ukraine, given the central role of both countries in world cereal exports. Although market tensions have eased somewhat and current prices reflect resilient yet reduced Ukrainian export prospects, the situation remains fragile and subject to sudden change.

Weather is another critical factor highlighted in the Outlook. While baseline projections assume stable, on-trend production, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events could create sharp volatility in yields and harvests, altering both global supply and trade flows. Such climate disruptions would have immediate consequences for prices and food security in import-dependent regions.

The policy environment will also play a decisive role. Sustainability initiatives such as the European Green Deal, as well as policies promoting biofuel use, could further tighten cereal markets by diverting supplies. Meanwhile, China’s efforts to enhance self-sufficiency and curb import reliance may cause unpredictable shifts in its demand profile, creating new trade patterns and price volatility before global markets adjust to a new equilibrium.

Trade policies add another layer of uncertainty. With countries in the Middle East and North Africa projected to rely even more heavily on imports, any disruption to international trade could heighten their vulnerability, especially when domestic production or stocks cannot fully compensate. As the Outlook stresses, ensuring a reliable and functioning global trading system will be vital for food security in these regions.

Finally, biological risks remain a serious concern. Crop pests and livestock diseases such as African swine fever (ASF) and avian influenza (HPAI) threaten to undermine supply stability, disrupt feed grain demand, and inject further volatility into global markets. The recent wave of HPAI in the United States, which led to significant poultry culling, illustrates how quickly animal health issues can ripple across feed demand and trade balances.