At the IAOM Eurasia Conference & Expo 2025 in Istanbul, Dave Whitcomb, Head of Research at Peak Trading Research, outlined a striking possibility: despite months of weakness, global grain markets could be on the verge of a rebound.
Dave Whitcomb
Speaking at the session “The Global Flow of Commodities: Production Realities, Market Reactions, and Hedging Strategies,” Whitcomb argued that a combination of non-fundamental drivers — macroeconomic trends, hedge fund positioning, and seasonal price patterns — may soon push wheat and corn prices significantly higher. Whitcomb stressed that hedge funds, not commercial traders, set the pace in today’s grain markets. “When hedge funds buy, prices go up. When they sell, prices go down,” he said.
Currently, funds hold massive short positions: about 230,000 contracts in U.S. corn, 100,000 in U.S. wheat, and nearly 250,000 in French wheat. Regression analysis suggests that if these shorts were covered, corn could rise by 65 cents per bushel and wheat by 40 cents, triggering rallies of 10–20%.
The macroeconomic backdrop also points to potential upside. The U.S. dollar has fallen 10% year-to-date, pressured by tariffs and Federal Reserve policies. A weaker dollar, Whitcomb reminded the audience, is generally bullish for commodities: it lifts dollar-denominated prices and boosts U.S. export competitiveness.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices are hovering at multi-year lows near $70/barrel. “Crude oil is the school bus for the entire commodity complex,” he noted. If oil were to resume an uptrend, as it did in 2021–22, it could provide a powerful lift to grain markets across the board.
SEASONALS POINT TO A TURNING POINT
Agricultural commodities also follow consistent seasonal patterns. After declining through the summer, wheat and corn prices historically firm in September. French wheat, for example, has risen in 12 of the last 13 years starting mid-September, while Chicago wheat has rallied 92% of the time in late September. “We are at the bottom of the seasonal rollercoaster,” Whitcomb said. “History suggests prices are about to rise again.”
Bringing the factors together, Whitcomb concluded that the outlook is turning supportive: weaker dollar, the potential for stronger crude oil, vulnerable hedge fund shorts, and seasonal trends. “This is a bullish time of the year. The path of least resistance is higher. Wheat prices, corn prices tend to rise this time of year,” he said. According to Whitcomb, if funds begin covering their large short positions and macro conditions align, grain markets could move upward, providing farmers and producers with much-needed relief.