MENA’s biggest grain importers are no longer just reacting to global prices, they are helping to set them. Speaking at Grain Academy 2025 in Varna, a key regional forum for the Black Sea and Balkans grain trade, Malak Al Akiely of Golden Wheat for Grain Trading explained how government tenders that move futures, larger strategic reserves, sovereign fund investments and emerging digital grain hubs are turning the region into a price maker in global wheat and coarse grains.

Grain Academy, the leading grain and oilseed forum in the Balkans and Black Sea region, returned to Varna on 30 October 2025 for its ninth edition, bringing together around 300 producers, traders, analysts, logistics experts and industry associations from 19 countries. From MENA’s growing role in price formation to Romania’s export resilience, Türkiye’s evolving import mix and Greece’s changing wheat balance, speakers painted a picture of a market that is stable on the surface but quietly being re-wired.

As a media partner of the event, Miller Magazine closely followed the debates and presentations in Varna to bring its readers the most relevant data, views and forward-looking assessments shaping the 2025/26 season.

One of the most forward-looking interventions came from Malak Al Akiely, CEO of Golden Wheat for Grain Trading, who argued that the Middle East and North Africa is no longer just a demand center absorbing world output – it is increasingly shaping prices. “MENA is no longer a price taker, but a price maker in global grain markets,” Al Akiely said. She backed this up with several structural shifts:

Tender power that moves markets. Large import tenders from buyers such as Egypt’s GASC, Saudi Arabia’s SAGO and Jordan now routinely generate immediate reactions on futures markets in Chicago and Paris. When MENA tenders are announced or delayed, exporters and traders reposition quickly – turning import dependence into real leverage over short-term price dynamics.

Strategic reserves as market buffers. Countries including Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are building six- to twelve-month grain reserves and aligning procurement strategies. By timing purchases more carefully, they can lean against price spikes instead of chasing them, acting as stabilizers rather than passive buyers.

Digital and AI-driven procurement. Several Gulf countries are exploring digital grain exchanges and AI-supported tender systems that could compete with existing Western benchmarks. Whoever succeeds in building a regional “grain hub of the future” will also help define reference prices for a large share of global food flows.

Investment along the value chain. Sovereign funds such as PIF and ADQ are taking stakes in trading and logistics assets, giving MENA not just purchasing power but ownership and visibility along the chain.

Geopolitics and logistics embedded in costs. Insurance, freight and security premiums in the Red Sea and Mediterranean are no longer temporary; they are becoming part of the structural price base. That makes MENA both a logistical center and a geopolitical price center for grains.

Malak Al Akiely, CEO of Golden Wheat for Grain Trading

COMFORTABLE WHEAT, TIGHTER CORN AND SOY

Weather and yield expectations were in focus in a presentation by Isabelle Tranter, Meteorologist at Aura Commodities, on global weather patterns and crop impact.

Wheat: Global wheat production is expected to rise by around 2% year-on-year, with bigger crops in the EU, Russia and Canada. On the current trajectory, the world wheat market looks well supplied, with no major weather risks on the horizon that would justify a sharp price spike. One uncertainty is China, where heavy rainfall at planting could trim acreage slightly – but not enough, in Tranter’s view, to materially disrupt the global balance.

Corn: A record U.S. crop – driven by an 8.5% increase in acreage and good yields – combined with an improved Ukrainian harvest has created a more comfortable corn surplus, easing prices after last season’s tightness. However, this benign picture comes with an asterisk: if La Niña brings dryness to Argentina early next year, the surplus could diminish quickly. Tranter also flagged a risk that U.S. yields may currently be overestimated, which would tighten balances further if revised down.

Soybeans: Here, the situation is notably tighter. The global surplus is the smallest in four years, around 2 million tonnes. That leaves little room for error: any significant disruption to crops in Brazil or Argentina could flip the market into deficit – for the first time since 2021/22 – and lend stronger support to prices.

Her conclusion was straightforward: wheat looks comfortable in the near term, but for corn and especially soybeans, La Niña and South American weather will be critical swing factors.

Isabelle Tranter, Meteorologist at Aura Commodities

BLACK SEA GRAIN: BIG CROPS, NEW BARRIERS, SHIFTING FLOWS

Christina Serebriakova, CEO of ASAP Agri, offered a data-driven overview of the Black Sea grain outlook for 2025/26, highlighting both robust production and changing trade patterns.

• Ukraine remains a key player, with wheat production projected at about 23 million tonnes and corn at 31–33 million tonnes, despite ongoing logistical and policy constraints.
• Russia continues to drive regional wheat growth, with another large crop expected above 85 million tonnes, reinforcing its position as a dominant exporter.
• Romania and Bulgaria are registering record crops and exports, strengthening the EU’s footprint in global wheat and corn trade.

On the policy side, EU import quotas and tariffs are set to sharply limit Ukrainian wheat flows into Europe, displacing an estimated 3–3.5 million tonnes that will need to find homes in North Africa and Asia. That redirection intensifies competition with Russian origins in key importing markets.

Trade shares are already shifting: in Egypt, Ukrainian wheat has increased its share of imports to around 38%, while Russia’s share has dropped to roughly 50%. In Algeria, Bulgaria and Russia are capturing volumes traditionally held by France, reshaping North African sourcing patterns.

On corn, the Black Sea crop is forecast at about 56 million tonnes, led by Ukraine (around 30.9 million tonnes) and Russia (14–15 million tonnes). Türkiye has emerged as one of the fastest-growing buyers of Ukrainian corn, with imports jumping from 3.2 million tonnes to 5.6 million tonnes, now covering about 75% of its total corn imports. By contrast, China’s corn imports from Ukraine have almost disappeared – falling from 8.6 million tonnes in 2020/21 to just 0.37 million tonnes in 2024/25 – as Brazilian and Russian supplies have taken over.

Christina Serebriakova, CEO of ASAP Agri,

ROMANIA: A RELIABLE SUPPLIER ANCHORED BY CONSTANȚA

From a field and export-side perspective, Felicia Ion, Commercial Director at COMCEREAL Vrancea, provided an in-depth look at Romania’s grain sector. Romania’s grain production peaked in 2021 with nearly 14 million tonnes of corn and 13.5–14 million tonnes of wheat, before drought-related stress cut corn yields sharply to 7–10 million tonnes in subsequent seasons. Farmers are now shifting more area from spring to winter crops to improve yield stability and reduce input costs. Combined with better rainfall, this is helping the sector recover ahead of the 2025/26 season.

Romania remains a major and reliable exporter, shipping around 68% of its total grain output. Wheat exports stand near 9–9.4 million tonnes, while corn is increasingly absorbed by domestic demand.

The Port of Constanța is central to this performance. Capable of handling up to 35 million tonnes per year, it connects to inland production via rail, road and the Danube river system, consolidating Romania’s role as one of the Black Sea’s key logistics platforms.

Ion underlined that Romania is gradually aligning with EU sustainability and environmental standards, but must manage the familiar headwinds of climate risk, rising input costs and fiscal uncertainty.

TÜRKİYE: A DEMAND ANCHOR IN SUNFLOWER, SOY, WHEAT AND CORN

Iren Akyuz, Broker at Rotel, highlighted how Türkiye’s import profile in sunflowerseed, soy, wheat and feed grains continues to shape regional trade and pricing.

Sunflowerseed and oil: Despite expanding sunflowerseed area to around 850,000 hectares, drought has held production to 1.1–1.2 million tonnes, keeping imports high at roughly 1 million tonnes, sourced mainly from Romania, Moldova and Bulgaria. To cushion domestic supply, Ankara has introduced duty-free and reduced-tariff quotas and lowered the reference import price from USD 700/tonne to USD 580/tonne. Türkiye remains a key importer of crude sunflower oil and a major exporter of refined oil, increasingly diversifying export destinations from Iraq toward African markets such as Djibouti, Libya and Ghana.

Soybeans: Soybean imports have doubled over the past decade to around 4 million tonnes, mainly from Brazil, the United States and Ukraine, driven by the expansion of the poultry and livestock sectors.

Wheat: For 2024/25, Türkiye’s wheat crop has been revised down to 17.9 million tonnes from an initial 19.6 million tonnes, a decline of about 13.9% from the previous year. The country continues to import wheat primarily to support its flour and pasta export industries. While Iraq remains an important buyer of Turkish flour, duty increases have made Turkish product less competitive there. In response, Turkish exporters are developing markets in Syria and African destinations such as Somalia and Ghana, as well as in Indonesia.

Corn: Corn production this season is estimated at 8.5 million tonnes, up about 5% year-on-year. Domestic use is around 9.5–10 million tonnes, leaving a structural import requirement. In the first eight months of 2025, Türkiye imported about 4 million tonnes of corn, of which 3 million tonnes came from Ukraine. On a crop-year basis (October 2024–August 2025), total imports are projected at 5.3 million tonnes.

GREECE: DURUM EXPORTER, SOFT WHEAT IMPORTER

Adding another regional angle, Anastasios Thanos, Director of Procurement at Loulis Food Ingredients, explored the structure of Greece’s wheat sector. For the 2025 season, Greece’s total wheat production reached 1.66 million tonnes, including 1.3 million tonnes of durum and 360,000 tonnes of soft wheat. Soft wheat accounts for about 22% of total wheat output, and roughly 70% of that is used for animal feed.

Domestic demand remains robust, with around:

• 850,000 tonnes used for human consumption (bread and bakery),
• 400,000 tonnes for feed, and
• 450,000 tonnes for pasta and milling.

On the trade side, imports in 2024 reached 1.25 million tonnes of soft wheat and 48,000 tonnes of durum, a 31.5% increase versus 2020. Major suppliers include Bulgaria (45%), Ukraine (16%), Russia (13%), Moldova (7%), Romania (7%), France (3%) and Canada (2%).

At the same time, durum wheat exports have surged to 635,000 tonnes, up 123% since 2020, supported by strong demand for high-quality Greek semolina in premium pasta production.