Kazakhstan wheat production is forecast at 16.4 million tons in 2022/23, its largest crop since the 22.7-million-ton record in 2011/12. With ample supplies, Kazakhstan wheat exports are forecast to reach 10.5 million tons, up 2.0 million from the previous year.
Kazakhstan is a major supplier of both wheat grain and flour to Central Asia, capturing nearly 100 percent market share in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Neighboring Uzbekistan is the largest consumer of Kazakhstan wheat, which supplements its domestic production with Kazakhstani supplies. Kazakhstan also competes with Russia in Iran and Azerbaijan.
So far this trade year, Kazakhstan has shipped large volumes of wheat grain and flour into these traditional destinations, exporting over 1 million tons per month between October and December 2022. July-December exports to its top destinations are up 600,000 tons from the prior year, with the largest increases for Afghanistan and Azerbaijan.
Given abundant supplies from both Kazakhstan and Russia, imports for Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are all revised higher in March. 2022/23 Kazakhstan wheat imports are also forecast up to 2 million tons to account for additional border trade with Russia.