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June WASDE shows promising world wheat outlook

12 June 20234 min reading
USDA's June WASDE report shows a positive outlook for global wheat production in 2023/24. Projected supplies are expected to increase by 10.8 million tonnes to 1,066.9 million tonnes. World trade in wheat is also forecasted to rise by 2.9 million tons to 212.6 million tons.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently published its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report (WASDE), revealing positive projections for global wheat, coarse grains, and rice production. Released on June 9th, the report provides insights into increased supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks for these essential commodities. 

The USDA's report indicates a favorable outlook for global wheat production in the 2023/24 season. Projected supplies are expected to increase by 10.8 million tons to reach 1,066.9 million tons. This growth is primarily driven by larger production in key wheat-producing countries such as Russia, India, the European Union (EU), and Ukraine. Russia's production is projected to rise by 3.5 million tons to 85.0 million tons, mainly due to favorable weather conditions after abundant spring precipitation. India's production is also anticipated to increase by 3.5 million tons to 113.5 million tons. The EU's wheat production is forecasted to rise by 1.5 million tons to 140.5 million tons, while Ukraine is expected to see a 1.0 million-ton increase to reach 17.5 million tons.

Global wheat consumption is projected to increase by 4.4 million tons to 796.1 million tons, driven primarily by higher feed and residual use in China, Russia, and India. Increased feed-quality wheat supplies are expected in China due to heavy rains in Henan province during the winter wheat harvest. 

World trade in wheat is also forecasted to rise by 2.9 million tons to 212.6 million tons, with increased exports expected from Russia, the EU, India, and Ukraine. Consequently, global ending stocks for wheat in the 2023/24 season are raised by 6.4 million tons to 270.7 million tons, mainly due to increases in stocks for India, Russia, and the EU.

COARSE GRAINS AND RICE OUTLOOK

The USDA report also highlights positive prospects for global coarse grains production. The forecast for 2023/24 predicts a 3.8 million-ton increase to 1,513.3 million tons, with higher corn production in Ukraine contributing to the upward revision. Additionally, the outlook for foreign barley production is slightly higher, mainly driven by increases in Ukraine, the EU, and Turkey.

Regarding trade, Ukraine is expected to witness larger corn exports in 2023/24, while the EU is projected to increase corn imports. In the 2022/23 season, corn exports are lowered for Argentina and the United States but raised for Ukraine, Brazil, and South Africa. Barley exports in 2023/24 are raised for the EU and Ukraine. Foreign corn ending stocks remain virtually unchanged, with increases in Paraguay and Zambia offset by reductions in Mexico and South Africa. Global corn ending stocks are estimated at 314.0 million tons, up 1.1 million tons from the previous month's report.

For rice, the USDA report indicates increased supplies, consumption, and ending stocks for the 2023/24 global outlook. The third Advanced Estimate from the Government of India boosts production by 4.0 million tons to 136.0 million tons for the 2022/23 season. This contributes to higher ending stocks and leads to an overall increase in global supplies for 2023/24, reaching 694.0 million tons. Despite reductions in Thailand and Cambodia, global production remains unchanged from the previous month. Trade remains steady at 55.8 million tons, with an increase in India's exports offsetting a decrease in Thailand's. Total rice consumption is expected to rise by 0.8 million tons to 523.8 million tons, primarily due to increased use in India. Projected global ending stocks for rice in 2023/24 have been raised by 3.5 million tons to 170.2 million tons, although they remain lower than the previous year.


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