At the IAOM Eurasia Conference & Expo 2025 in Istanbul, Dmitri Rylko, Director of IKAR, presented a cautious outlook for global wheat markets. While Russia is set to harvest one of its largest grain crops in recent years, weak global demand and costly logistics are limiting export momentum.

Rylko estimated Russia’s 2025 harvest at 133–135 million tons of grain, including 86–87 million tons of wheat. Pulse production has also been revised upward to 6.5 million tons. However, regional differences are stark: drought-hit Rostov and parts of Krasnodar have seen significant crop failures, while Stavropol is performing normally and will supply an export surplus.

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On the global stage, major exporters are expected to bring 186 million tons of wheat to the market, up sharply from 173 million last year. “This is a weak market,” Rylko noted, pointing to oversupply and subdued import demand.

Dmitri Rylko

Exports from the Black Sea region — Russia, Ukraine, and neighboring suppliers — are running well below last year’s pace. The reasons remain unclear: some buyers may already be well covered, while others are simply holding back amid ample availability worldwide.

Russia’s wheat exports, projected at 43–44 million tons, face logistical challenges. Much of the grain must be shipped from remote regions thousands of kilometers from export terminals. Rylko estimated this will add 700 rubles per ton, or about $400 million in total extra costs, undermining profitability. Moreover, Russia’s once-dominant export hub in the North Caucasus, historically responsible for up to 90% of shipments, will account for a record low share this year.

For Rylko, the underlying challenge is weak global demand. Despite large crops and available supply, trade flows are lagging. “The figures reflect a lack of demand,” he concluded, warning that without stronger buying interest, wheat prices will remain under pressure.