Global grains output is set to hit a new peak, driven by a bumper maize crop, yet wheat carryovers are projected to reach a multi-year low, with trade volumes at their lowest since 2019/20 due to a sharp drop in Chinese imports, according to the IGC’s April Grain Market Report.
Driven primarily by expectations of a bumper maize harvest, global total grains production in 2025/26 is projected to reach a new record of 2,373 million tonnes—an increase of 70 million tonnes year-on-year. This expansion is anticipated to be broadly matched by a corresponding rise in consumption, also forecast at a record 2,373 million tonnes. The upward revision in demand is largely attributed to increased industrial use, particularly ethanol production in India.
Total end-season grains stocks are expected to remain steady year-on-year at 580 million tonnes. While inventories of coarse grains are forecast to build slightly, wheat carryovers are poised to decline further.
WHEAT STOCKS TO HIT MULTI-YEAR LOW
The IGC has trimmed its global wheat production forecast by 1 million tonnes from the previous month, bringing it down to 806 million tonnes. While world wheat trade is still forecast at 201 million tonnes, consumption is set to outpace production at 814 million tonnes.
As a result, global wheat carryover stocks in 2025/26 are forecast to shrink for the third consecutive year, reaching a multi-year low of 260 million tonnes.
REVISED ESTIMATES FOR 2024/25
The Council made modest downward revisions for the current 2024/25 season, cutting total grains output by 3 million tonnes month-on-month to 2,303 million tonnes. Consumption projections were reduced by 8 million tonnes to 2,328 million, primarily reflecting lower food use of wheat (especially in India) and weaker feed demand, mainly for maize.
Despite the softer consumption outlook, closing stocks were revised 4 million tonnes higher to 580 million tonnes, although this remains the lowest level in a decade. Trade is now expected to reach 418 million tonnes, 2 million tonnes higher than previously forecast, supported by stronger maize exports, particularly to sub-Saharan Africa.
SOYBEANS
The global soyabean market remains resilient, with 2024/25 trade expected to reach a new high of 181 million tonnes—up 1% year-on-year. For 2025/26, world output is projected to rise by 3%, largely driven by bigger harvests in South America. Consumption is expected to hit a record level, bolstered by gains across feed, food, and industrial sectors. Stockpiles are projected to remain elevated, while global import demand is likely to remain flat, with lower Chinese imports offset by higher demand from smaller markets.
RICE PRODUCTION AND TRADE SET FOR NEW HIGHS
The rice market is also poised for continued expansion. Global rice output for 2024/25 is estimated 3 million tonnes higher than last month, largely due to improved prospects in India. Looking ahead, 2025/26 is expected to see record rice production, supported by larger crops in top exporters and China. Population-driven demand is projected to sustain record consumption levels, with inventories also inching higher. Global rice trade could climb to nearly 60 million tonnes by 2026, driven by strong demand from African and Asian markets, with India expected to remain the dominant exporter, accounting for roughly 40% of global shipments.
