The deepening crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has transcended simple increases in freight and insurance costs, fundamentally altering the decision-making patterns of global grain market players. According to Koray Tüysüzoğlu, CEO of Erser Group, one of Turkey’s leading companies in the trade of grains, pulses, and oilseeds, the primary driver is no longer a physical shortage of goods, but rather the pervasive uncertainty surrounding costs and risks.
From "Buy and Hold" to Strategic Agility
Koray Tüysüzoğlu
Erser Grup CEO
Speaking to Miller Magazine, Tüysüzoğlu highlighted a significant shift in commercial reflexes. As a leader of a group with diverse expertise across agriculture, logistics, packaging and flour industries, he noted that the traditional "buy low and store" mentality is being replaced by a defensive "avoid wrong positioning" strategy.
- Shift in Volume: Market participants are moving away from large, long-term positions.
- Operational Flexibility: There is a growing preference for smaller, short-term, and highly flexible transactions.
- The Spiral Effect: Tüysüzoğlu warned against the misconception that Black Sea imports are immune to the crisis. He noted that when one ship reroutes, it creates a ripple effect: port queues lengthen, freight rates surge, and the cost chain silently expands globally.
The "Market Receipt" Impact
The crisis in the Gulf poses a direct threat to Turkey’s agricultural production due to its dependence on the region for critical inputs such as nitrogen fertilizers, feed additives (amino acids), and fuel. In his view, the crisis begins not on the shelf, but in the field: “Input costs rise, yields fall, and livestock production becomes more expensive. In the end, the effect of a development in Hormuz will soon be visible on a supermarket receipt in Istanbul.”
If the current disruptions persist through the 2026 harvest season, Tüysüzoğlu predicts three critical breaking points for the market:
- Yield Loss: Restricted access to fertilizers could lead to significant drops in domestic crop yields.
- Livestock Inflation: Escalating feed costs will exert heavy price pressure on animal products.
- Liquidity Crunch: The combination of rising freight, fuel, and product costs will spike the need for working capital, potentially triggering a sharp liquidity squeeze across the sector.
RISK FOR TÜRKIYE, BUT ALSO AN OPPORTUNITY
Tüysüzoğlu said the crisis presents both risk and opportunity for Türkiye, provided the country uses its geographic advantages wisely. Positioned at the crossroads of the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East, Türkiye has the potential to strengthen its role as a regional trade hub. However, he emphasized that speed and flexibility will be critical. “From transit trade regulations to port and storage infrastructure, many areas need to be reviewed quickly,” he said.