At EuroGrainExchange 2026 in Bucharest, the panel “Supply chain economics. Major challenges. Are we ‘lost in translation’?” underlined how grain trade is becoming harder to manage as low prices, rising costs, climate stress, fragile logistics and tighter execution margins collide across the supply chain.
The grain sector is operating in a market where traditional signals no longer tell the whole story. Prices, weather and supply-and-demand balances still matter, but the economics behind physical trade have become more complex.
Miller Magazine Editor-in-Chief Namık Kemal Parlak
That was the central message of the EuroGrainExchange 2026 panel “Supply chain economics. Major challenges. Are we ‘lost in translation’?”, moderated by Miller Magazine Editor-in-Chief Namık Kemal Parlak in Bucharest. The session brought together perspectives from farming, feed demand, short-sea logistics, Turkish grain demand, Black Sea execution and EU policy.
Opening the panel, Parlak said the sector’s challenge is not only volatility itself, but how differently that volatility is understood across the value chain. What appears to be a price issue for one player may be a logistics, financing, climate or regulatory problem for another.
FARMERS FACE FLAT PRICES AND RISING COSTS
Dragos Costin Telehuz, co-owner of Telehuz Agriserv in Romania, opened the discussion from the farming side, warning that farm margins in parts of Europe are under severe pressure. He said food prices have remained structurally low for many years, while production costs have risen sharply. Labour, interest rates and land rents are now at or near historically high levels, and many of these fixed costs cannot be adjusted quickly from one season to the next.
Telehuz said pressure from the wider supply chain eventually reaches the farmer. When freight, port handling or inland transport costs rise, they often reduce the price paid at farm level.
Climate risk has made the situation more difficult. After repeated droughts and weak margins over the past five years, many Romanian farmers now need an excellent year, not simply a good one, to repair their balance sheets. “Supply is plentiful, prices are linear,” he said, noting that recent geopolitical crises have not lifted grain prices in the way producers might have expected. Instead, they have mainly raised costs.
Dragos Costin Telehuz, co-owner of Telehuz Agriserv in Romania
CORN SHIFTS TOWARD IRRIGATED AREAS IN ROMANIA
Telehuz said corn has become increasingly difficult to grow profitably on dry land in Romania. After drought in four of the last five years, corn acreage has moved more toward irrigated regions, turning the crop into a more localised product.
In his view, the main reason behind lower corn acreage is not only higher nitrogen costs, but climate risk. Without reliable rainfall or irrigation, many farmers can no longer break even with dryland corn.
He said farmers still have room to improve efficiency through better marketing, soil health, water conservation and precision agriculture. However, those who have not already started investing in technologies that reduce fertiliser, seed, pesticide and diesel use may find adaptation increasingly difficult.
Telehuz also cautioned against relying too much on policy support. In real terms, subsidies have become less effective because of inflation, while government aid has not been enough to reverse financial pressure on Romanian farms.
FEED INDUSTRY OFFERS GROWTH POTENTIAL FOR GRAIN TRADERS
Iani Chihaia, President of the Romanian Feed Manufacturers Association (ANFNC), described the feed industry as a key link between grain, protein and animal production in Southeast and South-Central Europe.
Romania’s industrial feed production, he said, fell from around 11 million tonnes in 1990 to about 1 million tonnes in 1996, before recovering to nearly 4 million tonnes today. Despite current market pressures, Chihaia remains optimistic, arguing that animal protein demand continues to support feed consumption.
He said the region has clear growth potential for grain traders because it combines locally produced grains with access to imported protein meals, particularly soybean meal from North and South America. The wider region, including Romania, Hungary, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Greece and the Western Balkans, produces around 18 million tonnes of feed, but has room to expand as Eastern Europe still has a deficit of animals compared with Western Europe.
Iani Chihaia, President of the Romanian Feed Manufacturers Association (ANFNC)
Chihaia said poultry is expected to lead future feed demand growth, followed by the swine sector, particularly in Romania, where around 70% of pork consumption is imported. However, animal diseases such as African swine fever and avian influenza remain major constraints.
He added that the feed industry is moving from a price-driven model toward performance, where feed conversion, meat quality, nutrient efficiency, supply reliability and the integration of grain, feed and protein systems will determine the winners.
LOGISTICS NOW SIT AT THE CENTRE OF GRAIN TRADE
John Daskalakis, grain trader at Soya Hellas in Greece, focused on physical execution and short-sea logistics in the Aegean, stressing that grain trade cannot be understood through price alone. A cargo that looks simple on paper may depend on multiple traders, brokers, surveyors, agents, coaster vessels, port limitations and tight delivery schedules. For Daskalakis, this makes logistics a core part of trade economics, especially for feed mills, flour mills and processors that rely on timely deliveries.
He said shipping costs, once volatile but manageable, now reflect a structural shift. The war in the Black Sea, tensions in the Middle East and the Red Sea crisis have changed routing patterns, risk premiums, insurance costs and freight flows across the Mediterranean and Black Sea basin.
He described the coaster fleet as “the workhorse of food security” in the region, adding that Greek and Greek-owned short-sea vessels remain essential for regional grain movement. Daskalakis concluded that “small ships move big markets” and that, in a low-margin environment, communication between all links in the chain is as important as price.
TÜRKİYE MAY STAY OUT OF WHEAT IMPORTS BUT REMAIN A CORN BUYER
Ibrahim Demirayak, Grains and Oilseeds Manager at Ameropa Türkiye, focused on Turkish grain supply and demand, noting that finance and water are becoming two of the most important constraints in the market. He said Türkiye received some of its highest rainfall in 66 years, supporting expectations for a good crop.
For wheat, Demirayak estimated new-crop production at around 23 million tonnes, depending on weather conditions in May. With sufficient carry-in stocks and a good harvest, Türkiye is unlikely to be active in wheat imports in the new season and may even remain closed to imports.
TMO is expected to continue supporting local farmers through high purchase prices, but global wheat production and Black Sea crop numbers will remain important for Turkish importers and flour exporters.
Ibrahim Demirayak, Grains and Oilseeds Manager at Ameropa Türkiye
BARLEY IMPORTS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
For barley, Demirayak said the new crop is slightly delayed because of rainfall, but production could reach around 8 million tonnes, about 20% above last year. With sufficient stocks, Türkiye is not expected to tender for barley in the new season.
He also underlined Türkiye’s role as a transit hub, noting that more than 3 million tonnes of grains were shipped through Turkish ports to third countries in 2025, a flow he expects to continue.
CORN REMAINS TÜRKİYE’S MAIN IMPORT NEED
Demirayak identified corn as Türkiye’s main grain import requirement in the coming season. Although it is still early to give a firm crop estimate, he said production could reach around 7.5 million tonnes, while imports may total about 3.5 million tonnes, mostly from the Black Sea.
He also referred to Türkiye’s recently announced 3 million tonne corn import quota. While the quota initially supported Black Sea sellers, Demirayak said Türkiye has enough local stocks to prevent the market from chasing higher prices. As a result, Turkish buyers are unlikely to fully use the quota at current levels, which could put pressure on CIF Türkiye prices.
INTERNATIONAL TRADING MOVES FROM SPECULATION TO RISK MANAGEMENT
Sébastien Henry, Managing Director of Agria Suisse Commodities, addressed the role of international traders in a low-price, oversupplied and margin-compressed environment. He said the price spike following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 created a period of “easy money,” when even weak execution could be covered by rising prices. That period also brought cost inflation, new entrants and excessive risk-taking.
Sébastien Henry, Managing Director of Agria Suisse Commodities
That model has now failed. With lower prices, oversupply and compressed margins, traders can no longer rely on directional bets. Henry described this as the end of the “casino player” model and the beginning of an era focused on risk management.
He argued that international traders still matter precisely because conditions have become more difficult. Their value lies in optionality: the ability to manage risk across origins, qualities, destinations, freight structures and execution routes.
OPTIONALITY BECOMES A COMMERCIAL HEDGE
Henry said traders should not rely on a single origin, port or position. Instead, they need flexibility between origins such as Ukraine, Bulgaria and Romania, and between destinations such as Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Indonesia.
He used Algeria as an example of why optionality matters. Some sales that initially looked more workable from Argentina were ultimately executed from the Black Sea region because execution became cheaper or more practical from nearby origins.
Destinations such as Algeria, he said, should not be viewed only as buyers, but also as benchmarks for the wider region. Sales to such destinations help define whether Black Sea and Danube origins remain competitive in global trade.
EU FARMERS FACE A LEGISLATIVE BURDEN
Victor Rombaut, CEO of Agro Tsar Petrovo, closed the panel with a farmer’s perspective on regulation, climate adaptation and European competitiveness. He argued that the session could also be described as “lost in legislation,” saying that EU efforts to reduce administrative burden often create more complexity for farmers.
Rombaut questioned whether Europe’s climate policy risks weakening its own farming sector. The EU accounts for a limited share of global greenhouse gas emissions, he said, and even a large reduction in EU emissions would have only a small global effect if emissions continue rising elsewhere. The risk, in his view, is that European agriculture becomes less competitive without solving the global climate problem.
Victor Rombaut, CEO of Agro Tsar Petrovo
For farmers, climate change now means not only drought but also excessive rainfall at the wrong time. Rombaut said Bulgaria has major gaps in irrigation and drainage infrastructure, leaving farmers exposed to both water scarcity and waterlogging. This year, some wheat acreage was lost because soils were too wet.
He said the only way to stabilise yields and manage inputs is to invest in farmland infrastructure, including irrigation and drainage. But many farmers currently lack the capital to make those investments.
CBAM AND IMPORT COMPETITION RAISE FAIRNESS QUESTIONS
Rombaut also criticised the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), particularly its effect on fertiliser costs. He said the additional cost of imported fertilisers is ultimately passed on to farmers, not absorbed by importers.
At the same time, European farmers may face competition from imported grain produced with lower-cost inputs and without equivalent carbon-related costs. He questioned why CBAM is applied to fertiliser inputs but not to grain imports produced with those inputs outside the EU.
In his view, European farmers are being asked to produce high-quality crops under stricter rules, while processors can import cheaper raw materials from other origins. This creates tension between farmers and processors, but the underlying problem, he argued, lies in EU legislation rather than in the commercial behaviour of processors.
Rombaut warned that if Europe continues in this direction, its farmers may struggle to compete globally.