Driven by record maize, rice, and sorghum harvests, global cereal production is forecast to surpass consumption in 2025, paving the way for a rebound in world grain stocks. According to the FAO’s new Food Outlook report, world cereal production is forecast to reach a record 2,911 million tonnes in 2025, exceeding total utilization and leading to a projected 1.0 percent increase in global stocks, reaching 873.6 million tonnes. 

The latest FAO Food Outlook report, released on June 12, projects that world cereal production will reach an all-time high of 2,911 million tonnes in 2025, up 2.1 percent from the previous year. This forecast includes rice in milled equivalent and marks a significant rebound from recent declines in global cereal output.

According to the FAO, production of all major cereals is expected to increase, with maize showing the strongest year-on-year growth in percentage terms, followed by record outputs for rice and sorghum. Wheat production is also set to rise, albeit more modestly.

Global cereal utilization is forecast to grow by 0.8 percent in the 2025/26 season, reaching 2,898 million tonnes. This includes a 0.9 percent increase in food consumption and a 0.5 percent rise in feed use, with all major cereals contributing to the upward trend. Other uses, including industrial applications, are also projected to increase by 1.0 percent, particularly for wheat and rice.

With production outpacing utilization, world cereal stocks are projected to expand by 1.0 percent—equivalent to 8.4 million tonnes—to reach 873.6 million tonnes by the end of the 2025/26 season. This increase is primarily attributed to coarse grains, while rice inventories are also expected to rise slightly. In contrast, wheat stocks are forecast to decline. The global cereal stock-to-use ratio is anticipated to remain stable at around 29.8 percent, close to the 2024/25 level.

PARTIAL RECOVERY EXPECTED IN GLOBAL CEREAL TRADE

Following a steep 7.0 percent contraction in 2024/25, global cereal trade is projected to see a partial recovery in 2025/26, with volumes rising 1.9 percent to 487.1 million tonnes. The rebound will be driven by a 3.8 percent increase in wheat trade, and a modest 0.9 percent gain in coarse grain trade. However, international rice trade is expected to shrink by 0.7 percent.

RICE PRICES LEAD DECLINE IN GLOBAL CEREAL MARKETS

Meanwhile, the FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 109.0 points in May 2025, reflecting an 8.2 percent year-on-year drop and standing 37.2 percent below its peak level in May 2022. The decline was largely due to a sharp fall in international rice prices, which dropped 22.6 percent compared to the previous year. Wheat prices also remained below year-earlier levels, whereas coarse grain prices rose modestly.