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Global wheat stocks seen reaching five-year high

13 April 20263 min reading

The USDA’s April 2026 Grain: World Markets and Trade report points to a more heavily supplied global wheat market in 2025/26, with record production, softer consumption than previously expected, and ending stocks climbing to the highest level in five years.

USDA forecasts world wheat production at 844.2 million metric tons in 2025/26, up from 799.3 million tons in 2024/25. At the same time, global consumption is projected at 820.1 million tons, while ending stocks are seen rising to 283.1 million tons, compared with 259.1 million tons a year earlier. Trade is forecast at 221.9 million tons, up from 204.5 million tons in 2024/25. In short, production is outpacing consumption this season, leaving the market more comfortably supplied than last year. 

Global Wheat Market (Source: USDA)

EXPORTER STOCKS HIT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2009/10

The USDA says the production increase is concentrated in key exporting origins. The European Union’s wheat crop is forecast at 145.1 million tons, up sharply from 121.1 million tons last season. Russia is seen at 90.3 million tons, versus 81.6 million, while Argentina is projected at 27.9 million tons, up from 18.5 million. Canada’s crop is forecast at 40.0 million tons, compared with 35.9 million a year earlier. This broader recovery in exporter supply is the main reason stocks among the major exporters are expected to rise about 30%, reaching their highest level since 2009/10, according to the report. 

Production Increase Among Major Exporters (*Million tons)

The stock build is also visible country by country. U.S. wheat ending stocks are forecast at 25.5 million tons, up from 23.3 million in 2024/25 and the highest in six years. EU ending stocks are projected at 16.2 million tons, up from 11.1 million. Russia is seen at 15.0 million tons, versus 10.6 million a year earlier. India’s stocks are estimated at 22.0 million tons, nearly triple the level of two years ago, while China continues to hold by far the world’s largest wheat stockpile at about 124.8 million tons, only slightly below last year. 

April Revisions in Wheat Export Forecasts (*Million tons)

This month’s revisions also show a market still adjusting trade flows between exporters and importers. On the export side, Russia’s 2025/26 wheat exports were raised to 44.5 million tons from 43.5 million, Argentina’s to 19.5 million from 19.0 million, and Kazakhstan’s to 11.0 million from 10.5 million. Ukraine, by contrast, was cut to 12.5 million tons from 13.5 million because of ongoing logistical difficulties. Australia’s exports were lowered to 26.5 million tons from 27.0 million. 

Selected Countries: Wheat Ending Stocks (*Million tons) 

On the import side, Vietnam’s forecast was raised to 7.3 million tons, Bangladesh’s to 7.6 million, and Indonesia’s to 13.2 million, while Nigeria’s imports were reduced to 6.2 million tons and Brazil’s to 6.8 million tons. 

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