Alexander Karavaytsev
Senior Economist
International Grains Council (IGC)

Global wheat flour trade declined notably in 2024/25 due to reduced import requirements in Iraq, shifting demand patterns in sub-Saharan Africa and the Americas, and limited export availability from Turkey. However, the initial outlook for 2025/26 suggests a strong recovery, with trade volumes projected to reach 17.5 million tonnes — the highest level in nine years, if realized.

PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF THE 2024/25 SEASON

Although complete statistics for the 2024/25 (July/June) marketing year is not yet available, preliminary IGC estimates indicate a notable decline in global wheat flour trade. At an estimated 16.0 million tonnes (grain equivalent), the world total in the twelve months to June 2025 is down by 6% from the prior year’s six-year high. The retreat is largely driven by reduced import demand in Iraq and smaller purchases by buyers in parts of the Americas and sub-Saharan Africa.

The International Grains Council (IGC) tracks global wheat flour trade, with regular bi-annual updates featuring in its Grain Market Reports (GMR).

The downturn in 2024/25 was largely shaped by sharply lower imports by Iraq, the world’s second-largest wheat flour importer. This followed a record domestic wheat harvest, with the government reportedly authorising up to 2.0 million tonnes of grain exports in March 2025. Import needs were further curtailed by policy measures aimed at boosting domestic flour production and cutting reliance on imports, including a phased increase in customs tariffs on imported flour. In addition, less competitive Turkish offers – Iraq’s typical top supplier – contributed to reduced imports, which are estimated at 1.2 million tonnes, the least in 14 years and down by 0.9 million tonnes year-on-year.

In 2023/24, imports by sub-Saharan Africa surged to a seven-year high of 3.2 million tonnes (up from 2.0m the year before), amid abundant and competitively priced supplies from Turkey. Ethiopia and Sudan led the rise, with Sudan also increasing purchases from Egypt amid challenges in its domestic milling sector. However, Turkish wheat import restrictions subsequently constrained its flour export capacity. Although Egypt stepped in to boost regional shipments, total flour deliveries to sub-Saharan Africa are estimated to have edged lower in 2024/25, pegged at 3.1 million tonnes – still well above the five-year average. While many buyers in the region likely scaled back imports, Sudan’s expanding purchases, primarily from Egypt, helped limit the overall decline.

In the Americas, 2024/25 wheat flour imports are preliminarily placed at 2.0 million tonnes, down 0.2 million tonnes year-on-year. The drop stems primarily from reduced Turkish exports to Cuba and Venezuela. With Venezuela expanding its domestic milling capacity and shifting toward grain imports, its flour imports are expected to fall to a six-year low. 

Conversely, 2024/25 saw a marked rise in intra-CIS flour trade, to a nine-year high of 1.6 million tonnes (1.4 previous year), as Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan secured unusually large volumes of competitively priced supplies from Kazakhstan and Russia. Kyrgyzstan’s imports were likely the highest since 2012/13, while volumes to Turkmenistan are estimated at a record high.

On the export front, Turkey, by far the world’s largest flour exporter, saw shipments shrink due to wheat import restrictions, which limited access to competitively priced supplies from the Black Sea region. 2024/25 dispatches are estimated to have contracted by over one-third from the prior year’s peak, to 3.7 million tonnes, potentially a ten-year low.

Egypt’s flour exports, on the other hand, rose significantly, supported by strong demand from sub-Saharan Africa, especially Sudan, and reduced competition from Turkey. 2024/25 shipments are estimated at a record 2.0 million tonnes (0.9m previous year), positioning Egypt as the world’s third-largest exporter. However, it should be noted, that product exports statistics for Egypt remains somewhat limited, with volumes to some destinations based on IGC estimates.

Kazakhstan’s flour exports are seen at a solid 2.7 million tonnes, broadly unchanged year-on-year and above the recent average. However, the figure still falls short of the country’s export potential due to logistical bottlenecks and competition from Russian suppliers.

Meanwhile, Russia’s flour exports have grown steadily in recent years, with changes in the country’s floating wheat export duties favouring shipments of processed products at times. Expanded deliveries have been reported to Afghanistan, Iraq, and China. The Council’s preliminary estimate for Russia in 2024/25, chiefly based on private shipping data and information from local sources, is at 1.2 million tonnes, only marginally lower year-on-year.

LOOKING AHEAD TO 2025/26

The initial outlook for 2025/26 points to a significant rebound in global wheat flour trade, with volumes forecast at 17.5 million tonnes, the highest in nine years, if realised. The bulk of the projected increase is in Near East Asia, where Iraq’s potentially smaller wheat crop may trigger higher import demand. Still, with local grain supplies expected to remain at an elevated level, imports by that country are likely to stay well below earlier peaks. Elsewhere in that region, Syria’s flour imports may reach a new record due to poor local production and limited milling capacity, with Turkey likely to remain the main supplier.

Sub-Saharan Africa is also projected to increase purchases, supported by population growth and continued constraints in domestic milling, with operations in some areas disrupted by conflict. However, overall wheat flour use could be partially offset by an expected rebound in local maize production, a key dietary staple.

On the supply side, Turkey’s flour exports are set to recover following the removal of wheat import restrictions. Yet, volumes may remain below historical peaks due to reduced buying by Iraq and increased competition from Russia and Egypt, although shipments from the latter are forecast to retreat in the year ahead. Additionally, deliveries from Turkey to Iraq have reportedly faced border issues this year due to political tensions in the latter.

Kazakhstan’s flour exports are expected to climb to an eight-year high, supported by strong demand in Central and South Asia. Finally, Russia’s shipments are likely to remain robust, although actual volumes will depend on production economics and export margins.

Global wheat flour trade experienced a notable downturn in 2024/25 amid reduced import needs in Iraq, shifting demand patterns in sub-Saharan Africa and the Americas, as well as constricted export availability from Turkey. Nonetheless, the market remained dynamic owing to rising deliveries from Egypt and robust shipments from Kazakhstan and Russia. Looking into 2025/26, a solid recovery in trade volumes is envisaged on expanding demand in the Near East Asia and Africa, potentially increased supplies from Turkey, and sustained deliveries from Kazakhstan and Russia. However, the extent of the rebound hinges on crop outcomes, government policies, logistical costs, and broader economic developments in the main importing regions.

*More detailed information is available in the IGC Grain Market Report.