Gaurav Jain
AgPulse Pte Ltd, Singapore
I recently had the pleasure of sharing my insights on the global pulses market at a vibrant event in Dubai, hosted by the Ukraine Soybean and Pulses Association. As someone who’s been knee-deep in this industry for years, it’s always exciting to discuss the twists and turns shaping supply and demand. With 2026 on the horizon, the picture is one of abundant harvests but tricky balances—oversupply in key areas, policy uncertainties, and geopolitical factors that could flip the script. Here’s a rundown of what I covered, focusing on peas, lentils, and chickpeas.
Starting with peas, we’re looking at a balanced yet precarious global supply. Major producers like Canada and Russia are gearing up for big crops. Canada’s realistic production estimate for 2025-26 sits at 3.95 million metric tons (MMT), but with a hefty carry-in and sluggish exports due to China’s 100% import duty on Canadian peas until February’s end, finding markets could be tough. Russia, the top supplier to China, is projecting 5.013 MMT, potentially leading to another acreage bump in 2026. Ukraine’s record 675,000 MT crop is impressive, but high prices are slowing shipments. The EU-27 is a bright spot, with production outpacing domestic use for the first time in eight years at 2.396 MMT, reducing import dependency.
On the demand side, India plans to import 1.5 MMT under its current policy, open until March 2026, while China eyes 2.15 MMT. Overall, supply edges demand at 6.816 MMT vs. 6.624 MMT, but if China lifts duties on Canada or India extends imports, trade flows could surge. Don’t overlook the MENA region—importing around 400,000 MT annually, with UAE as a key hub.
Lentils paint a more burdensome picture. Oversupply is the name of the game, with Australia’s 1.904 MMT crop leading to a massive 1.296 MMT carryout. Canada’s whopping 3.35 MMT production pushes total supply to 3.949 MMT, but exports might cap at 1.85 MMT, leaving 1.749 MMT in stocks. Kazakhstan is emerging as a powerhouse, exporting 600,000 MT mainly to Türkiye. Globally, supply hits 5.28 MMT against 5.363 MMT demand, pressured by reduced Indian needs due to a strong pigeon pea harvest. MENA imports hover at 1.25 MMT, with UAE and Iraq as big players.
Chickpeas follow suit with supply outstripping demand. Russia’s production jumps to 998,000 MT, yielding 780,000 MT exports to Türkiye and Pakistan. North America’s bumper crops—Canada at 475,000 MT and USA at 310,000 MT—will strain markets, resulting in larger carries. Argentina’s back-to-back records add 189,000 MT, while India’s rising acreage boosts output to 687,000 MT, enhancing its export share. Total supply: 2.04 MMT vs. 1.825 MMT demand. MENA consumes heavily, importing 660,000 MT of Kabuli types, with Türkiye as a processing powerhouse—though its own crops dipped in 2025.
In Türkiye, crop cuts across pulses signal rising imports, which could absorb some global surplus. Accurate analysis is key; our AgPulse estimates for EU peas were spot-on at 2.3-2.4 MMT, avoiding the 30% swings seen elsewhere.
The pulses market in 2026 will hinge on policy tweaks and geopolitics. For millers and traders, staying agile is crucial—opportunities abound in regions like MENA, but oversupply risks price pressures. Let’s watch how these dynamics unfold.