Global grain trade is set to shrink to its lowest level in five years, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief released on April 4, 2025. The report forecasts world cereal trade in 2024/25 at 478.9 million tonnes, a sharp 6.7 percent drop from the previous season and the smallest volume since 2019/20, driven by reduced demand from key importers like China and downward revisions in export projections.
The FAO has slashed its global cereal trade forecast by 5.3 million tonnes since its March estimate, reflecting weaker trade in both coarse grains and wheat. The coarse grain trade, including maize and sorghum, is now projected at 224.2 million tonnes—an 8.2 percent decline from 2023/24. This reduction is largely attributed to lower purchases by China, alongside a slower export pace from major suppliers. “Maize exports from Brazil are revised downwards in line with the export pace to date, and sorghum exports from the United States are reduced on account of anticipated lower flows to China,” the report states.
Wheat trade is also expected to contract significantly, with the 2024/25 forecast lowered by 1.7 million tonnes to 195 million tonnes—a 7.2 percent drop from the prior season. The decline stems from reduced imports by China and smaller export volumes from Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation. “FAO’s forecast for world trade in cereals in 2024/25 has been further reduced… marking the lowest since 2019/20,” the report notes, underscoring the broader slowdown in global grain flows.
Despite the trade contraction, global cereal production in 2024 has been revised upward by 7.1 million tonnes to 2,849 million tonnes, though it remains 0.3 percent below the previous year’s total. The increase is fueled by stronger-than-expected wheat harvests in Australia and Kazakhstan, alongside a bumper barley crop in Australia. Rice production is also on track for a record high of 543.3 million tonnes in 2024/25, up 1.6 percent from last season, with India leading the growth, supported by robust harvests in Cambodia, China, and Tanzania.
However, the outlook for cereal stocks is less rosy. World cereal inventories are projected to fall 1.5 percent by the end of the 2025 season to 873.3 million tonnes, despite a 4.0 million tonne upward revision this month. The decline is driven by a steep 6.0 percent drop in coarse grain stocks, particularly maize, due to lower imports by China. In contrast, global wheat stocks are expected to rise 0.8 percent to 320 million tonnes, bolstered by increases in India, Kazakhstan, and Russia. The world cereal stocks-to-use ratio for 2024/25 is forecast at 30.1 percent, down slightly from 30.9 percent in 2023/24 but still considered adequate.
Looking ahead, the FAO’s initial forecast for global wheat production in 2025 holds steady at 795 million tonnes, matching last year’s level after this month’s upward adjustments to 2024 figures.