The FAO’s latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief projects global cereal production for 2024 at 2,841 million tonnes, a downward revision of 0.6% compared to last year. Despite the decrease, it remains the second-largest output on record. The decline is attributed primarily to reductions in maize and wheat production forecasts. Global grain stocks are also projected to tighten, with a 0.7% year-on-year decline expected, bringing stocks down to 874 million tonnes.
Global maize output, representing 80% of the coarse grains total, is now forecast at 1,217 million tonnes, 1.9% below the 2023 level. Lower-than-expected yields in the European Union and the United States are key factors behind this adjustment. Similarly, global wheat production is projected at 789 million tonnes, slightly reduced from earlier forecasts and matching the 2023 output. Wet conditions in parts of the EU have significantly curtailed yields, contributing to the downward revision.
Unlike maize and wheat, global rice production for 2024/25 is forecast to rise 0.8% year-on-year, reaching a record 538.8 million tonnes (milled basis). The expansion is driven by increased planting areas and favorable conditions in key producing regions.
WINTER WHEAT AND COARSE GRAINS OUTLOOK FOR 2025
Planting of the 2025 winter wheat crop is underway in the Northern Hemisphere, but lower 2024 wheat prices could discourage area expansions. While rainfall has improved sowing conditions in the United States, delays due to excessive wetness and ongoing water deficits in parts of the EU and the Russian Federation pose challenges. In South America, early signs suggest reduced maize planting in Argentina, driven by dry conditions and disease risks. Conversely, Brazilian planting intentions remain stable, bolstered by improved rainfall, while South Africa expects steady maize plantings.
GLOBAL GRAIN USE RISES AS STOCKS DECLINE
Global grain utilization for 2024/25 is forecast at 2,859 million tonnes, up slightly from the previous month and 0.6% higher than in 2023/24. Rice utilization is set to reach a record 536.7 million tonnes, driven by expanding consumption in Asia. However, global cereal stocks are projected to fall 0.7% year-on-year to 874 million tonnes. Wheat and maize inventories, particularly in the EU, the United States, and China, are set to decline, while rice reserves are expected to expand modestly.
DECLINE IN GLOBAL GRAIN TRADE
World grain trade is forecast at 484 million tonnes in 2024/25, down 1.1 million tonnes from the previous month and 4.6% below 2023/24 levels. Coarse grain trade, particularly maize, is projected to contract due to reduced import demand from China and smaller exports from Brazil and the United States. Wheat trade is also forecast to decline by 5.4%, with lower imports expected in China and the EU, and reduced exports from the EU, Russia, and Ukraine. In contrast, global rice trade for 2025 is projected to rise to 55.6 million tonnes, supported by India’s repeal of export restrictions on certain rice varieties.