FAO’s Statistical Yearbook 2025 reveals that while global cereal production has reached record levels, yield growth is slowing and trade dependency is intensifying. Developing regions are expanding cropland to meet rising demand, yet efficiency and sustainability challenges continue to mount. The data underscores how the world’s food security increasingly hinges on a few key grain exporters and stable international trade flows.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) released its Statistical Yearbook 2025 on October 29, marking the organization’s 80th anniversary and coinciding with World Statistics Day. The yearbook offers a detailed overview of global agriculture through four key lenses — economic dimensions, production and trade, food security, and sustainability — providing a wealth of insights highly relevant to grain and milling industries. According to FAO’s Chief Statistician José Rosero Moncayo, the publication underscores the need for “timely, accurate, and comparable data to guide policy and ensure resilient agrifood systems.”

Cereal production and trade: Asia dominates, but efficiency gains are uneven

The FAO report shows that cereal crops remain the backbone of global agriculture, with production volumes continuing to rise despite land and labor constraints. Between 2000 and 2023, world agricultural value added nearly doubled to USD 4 trillion, but much of the growth came from Asia, which now accounts for 66 percent of global agricultural output.

Asia also leads in cereal production, accounting for 37 percent of global cropland, while Africa’s cultivated area expanded by over 30 percent, surpassing Europe in total cropland for the first time in 2016.

FAO’s data indicate that the world’s total cropland reached 1.57 billion hectares in 2023, up 5 percent from 2000. Yet per-capita cropland has fallen by 20 percent globally, with the most dramatic decline in Africa (−26 percent) — signaling mounting pressure on land resources and productivity.

World exports of cereals by main commodities

Trade concentration in cereals and shifting export patterns

In 2023, cereals continued to dominate food trade flows. According to the Yearbook’s trade tables, wheat, maize, and rice accounted for the majority of agricultural exports, led by the United States, Russia, Ukraine, India, and Argentina. FAO data show that the global value of food exports has grown substantially since 2000, though trade imbalances persist between import-dependent regions (notably North Africa and the Middle East) and surplus producers across the Americas and the Black Sea.

FAO also highlights that the Cereal Import Dependency Ratio remains high in much of Africa and the Near East, leaving these regions vulnerable to market shocks. In Egypt, for example, over half of national dietary energy comes from imported cereals.

World production of primary crops by main commodities

Fertilizers, water and irrigation drive productivity

The Yearbook reports that the world used 190 million tonnes of inorganic fertilizers in 2023 — a 41 percent rise since 2000 — with nitrogen accounting for 58 percent of total nutrient use. Asia represented 56 percent of global fertilizer consumption, while Africa, despite rapid growth (+82 percent since 2000), still accounted for only 4 percent of total use.

Meanwhile, the global area equipped for irrigation reached 355 million hectares, up 23 percent from 2000. Asia again dominates, with 71 percent of the world’s irrigated land, followed by the Americas (16%) and Europe (8%). Notably, Egypt ranks among the top three countries globally with nearly 99 percent of its cropland under irrigation.

Main traded cereals, top importers and exporters (quantities, 2023)

Food security and dietary access

Beyond production and trade, FAO’s 2025 edition sheds light on food affordability and nutrition disparities. The Yearbook estimates that more than 3 billion people cannot afford a healthy diet, while the cost of a healthy diet increased in all regions in 2024.

The Cereal Import Dependency Ratio and Dietary Energy Supply Data show that cereals still provide over 45 percent of dietary energy in Africa and Asia — reinforcing the critical role of stable grain trade in global food security.

FAO world food price index

Sustainability pressures

FAO’s environmental indicators reveal that greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems remain a major challenge. In 2023, farm-gate emissions reached nearly 7 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent, with cereal production among the most emission-intensive activities. The organization also reports growing water stress and nutrient imbalances, particularly in North Africa and South Asia, where intensive irrigation is accelerating soil degradation.

Data for policy and industry planning

FAO emphasizes that its Statistical Yearbook 2025 is not merely a data repository but a strategic tool for evidence-based agricultural planning. For milling and grain-processing industries, the report’s findings point to several long-term dynamics:

• Cropland efficiency must rise as available land per capita continues to shrink.
• Trade resilience will depend increasingly on infrastructure, logistics, and storage capacity in import-dependent regions.
• Input costs and environmental constraints are reshaping the competitiveness of global grain supply chains.

World production of primary crops by commodity group

GLOBAL CEREAL ECONOMY

• Total global cropland (2023): 1.57 billion hectares, up 5% since 2000.
• Cereals dominate global agriculture, covering 47% of total cropland.
• Asia produces two-thirds of the world’s cereals; Africa’s cultivated area expanded 30% since 2000.
• Per-capita cropland declined 20% globally, and 26% in Africa — signaling mounting land pressure.
• Cereal import dependency ratio: exceeds 50% in much of North Africa and the Near East.
• Value of global food exports: USD 2.8 trillion in 2022, up from USD 570 billion in 2000 — nearly fivefold growth over two decades.
• Cereals supply 45% of global dietary energy; in Africa and Asia, the share exceeds 60%.
• Wheat consumption rising rapidly in Africa and South Asia — replacing traditional staples.
• Per-capita cereal availability: around 330 kg per person per year, stable since 2015.
• Rice consumption plateaued or slightly declining in upper-middle-income Asian economies.
• Global irrigated land: 355 million hectares, up 23% since 2000. Asia holds 71% of irrigated cropland.
• Global fertilizer use: 190 million tonnes in 2023 (+41% vs. 2000).
• Cereal production accounts for nearly 1.6 gigatonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions annually — about 23% of total agricultural emissions — making it one of the most emission-intensive farming sectors.
• Water stress and soil degradation rising fastest in North Africa, Near East, and South Asia — key cereal importers.