The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its 2025/26 global grains forecast by 13 million tonnes to 2,425 million tonnes — nearly 100 million higher year-on-year, the strongest annual increase since 2016/17.
In its October Grain Market Report, the IGC projects global total grains consumption at around 2,400 million tonnes in 2025/26 — slightly above the previous year and reaching a new record high. However, the key dynamic is that only part of the increased supply is expected to be absorbed by higher use — hence global ending stocks are forecast to rise to 618 million tonnes, a three-year high. In trade, total grains trade is projected at around 440 million tonnes, showing a slight increase month-on-month, reflecting stronger wheat shipments.
WHEAT OUTPUT POISED FOR AN ALL-TIME RECORD
Specifically for wheat, global production is forecast at 827 million tonnes for 2025/26, marking an eight-million-tonne increase over the previous year, which — if realized — would constitute an all-time record. The rebound reflects improved harvests across several key exporters, notably Russia, the EU, and Argentina. In the European Union, wheat output is estimated at 142.3 million tonnes (+19.2 % y/y) thanks to beneficial rainfall and yield recovery. Russia’s wheat forecast was raised to 86.5 million tonnes (+6.4 % y/y) and Argentina’s wheat to 22.2 million tonnes (+19.9 % y/y).
Trade volumes are projected to rise to 208 million tonnes, up from 202 million tonnes in 2024/25, pointing to a return of stronger cross-border demand after a subdued year marked by freight cost volatility and regional policy restrictions. Consumption, meanwhile, is expected to expand moderately to 820 million tonnes, driven by population growth and food demand in Africa and Asia but partly offset by weaker industrial use in some importing regions.
The most striking shift comes in carryover stocks, which are forecast to climb by three million tonnes to 270 million tonnes, ending a three-year drawdown trend. Among major exporters, inventories are set to recover to 73 million tonnes, compared with 68 million tonnes a year earlier.
MAIZE: RECORD HARVESTS DRIVEN BY SOUTH AMERICA
Global maize output for 2025/26 is forecast at 1,297 million tonnes, an all-time high. Exceptional yields in Brazil and Argentina have offset weather-related shortfalls in parts of the U.S. and Eastern Europe. Consumption is expected to rise slightly to 1,288 million tonnes, mainly on firm feed demand in Asia and Latin America. Yet the IGC notes that industrial use (notably for ethanol) remains subdued. Global ending stocks are set to reach 299 million tonnes, the highest in four years, keeping export competition intense among the major suppliers.
SOYBEANS AND RICE
Global soybean production is projected at 428 million tonnes, just below the record, with strong harvests in Brazil and the United States. Consumption is rising modestly to 430 million tonnes, lifting stocks to 79 million tonnes, while renewed Chinese import demand could push trade to a record 187 million tonnes.
For rice, output is forecast at 542 million tonnes (milled basis), broadly unchanged from last year. Favourable weather in India, Southeast Asia, and West Africa supports stable yields, while consumption remains near 540 million tonnes.
