BLOG

GLOBAL BARLEY MARKET AND CURRENT SITUATION

06 April 20179 min reading

The current data on barley, which has exceeded 140 million tons of production globally, indicate that the production in this season has decreased by a certain extent. The latest report by the US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Services (USDA FAS) indicates that production will go down from 147 million tons in 2015/16 season to 143,9 million tons in 2016/17 season. The only thing that can changes the amounts in these estimates will be the outcome of the harvest in the southern hemisphere.

arpaBarley, which is the most important raw material of feed and malt industry, ranks 4th in the global grain production of 2 billion tons, with a production volume of 140 million tons, after corn, wheat and rice.

The US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Services (USDA FAS), which is one of the few organizations publishing global production volumes of grains, published its latest report in March. According to the report, the global barley production which was 141,7 million tons in 2014/15 season reached 147,7 million tons in 2015/16 season. However, the USDA’s forecast for the current season indicates a decrease in production by approximately 1 million tons. According to the forecast by USDA, the global barley production will be 146,9 million tons in 2016/17 season.

The report dated February 23 by the International Grain Council (IGC) points out that global barley production, which amounted to 144,4 million tons in 2014/15 season, reached 148,6 million tons in 2015/16 season. The forecast of IGC for 2016/17 indicates an increase by approximately 1 million tons (149,4 million tons).

A comparison of the data of these two organizations demonstrates that there is a 3 million tons difference between data on global barley production and forecasts for the oncoming season. Besides, USDA warns of a decrease in production, while IGC forecasts an increase. In the coming days, with the harvest results to come in the southern hemisphere, the difference between the data of these organization for 2016/17 season will be smaller and the results will be clarified.

CURRENT STATUS OF LEADING BARLEY PRODUCERS In global barley production, the highest production comes from the EU member countries. According to USDA’s data, in global barley production, which amounted to 141,7 million tons in 2014/15 season, a total of 60,6 million tons came from EU countries. The total barley production in EU countries reached 61,5 million tons in 2015/16 season, and it is estimated to remain at 60 million tons in 2016/17 season.

Russia, the second largest barley producer after EU countries, produced 20 million tons in 2014/15 season, according to USDA data. The total barley production went down to 17 million tons in 2015/16 season, and it is estimated to remain at 17.5 million tons in 2016/17 season.

EU countries and Russia produce more than half of the total global barley volume, which was 147,7 million tons in 2015/16 season. These two countries are followed by Ukraine with a production of 8,7 million tons in 2015/16 season. Ukraine is estimated to reach a production volume of 9,9 million tons in 2016/17 season. Ukraine is followed by Australia, which produced 8,5 million tons of barley in 2015/16 season, and it is estimated to go up to 13 million tons in 2016/17 season.

Australia is followed by Canada with 8,2 million tons, Turkey with 7,4 million tons, Argentina with 4,9 million tons, the USA with 4,7 million tons, Morocco with 3,5 million tons and Iran with 3 million tons.

GLOBAL BARLEY CONSUMPTION The downward forecast of global barley production by USDA has also been reflected in consumption. According to this, global barley consumption, which was 141,5 million tons in 2014/15 season and went up to 147,7 million tons in 2015/16 season, will be around 145,7 million tons in 2016/17 season. Contrary to production, the forecasts of IGC for consumption support the expectations of USDA. That is, IGC also estimates a global barley consumption of 145,7 million tons for this season in its February report.

Like in production, EU countries also lead the global barley consumption. According to USDA’s data, barley consumption in EU countries, which amounted to 50,9 million tons in 2014/15 season, went up to 51,7 million tons in 2015/16 season. It is estimated that the increase will continue in 2016/17 season, reaching 54,1 million tons. The highest consumer of barley after EU countries is Russia. Russia consumed 14,1 million tons of barley in 2014/15 season and 13,6 million tons in 2015/16 season. The estimated consumption in Russia for 2016/17 season is 13,9 million tons.

Saudi Arabia, which consumed 10,2 million tons of barley in 2015/16 season, was the third country in global ranking. It is estimated that Saudi Arabia will increase its consumption in 2016/17 season, reaching 11 million tons.

In global barley consumption in 2015/16 season, Saudi Arabia is followed by China with 7,9 million tons, Canada and Turkey with 6,9 million tons, Iran with 5 million tons, Ukraine with 4,7 million tons, the USA with 4,4 million tons and Morocco with 3,4 million tons.

CURRENT SITUATION IN GLOBAL BARLEY TRADE Approximately 30 million tons of global barley production is subject to international trade. According to IGC data, global barley trade, which amounted to 29,1 million tons in 2014/15 season, went up to 29,9 million tons in 2015/16 season. However, the forecasts of IGC indicate a fall in trade in 2016/17 season, down to 26,1 million tons. Although there are slight differences, the USDA data also support the IGC data in global barley trade.

By countries, the EU, Australia, Ukraine and Russia lead the export, and Saudi Arabia, China and Iran lead the import in global barley trade. According to USDA data; more than 22 million tons in global barley export, which amounted to a total of 27,4 million tons in 2015/16 season, was made by the EU (8,6 million tons), Australia (5,4 million tons), Ukraine (4,6 million tons) and Russia (3,7 million tons). In 2016/17 season, all countries except for EU countries are expected to increase their export volumes. A decrease by approximately 3 million tons is expected in the exports of the EU.

According to 2015/16 data in global barley exports, Russia ranks the fourth, followed by Argentina with 2,8 million tons, Canada with 1,1 million tons and Kazakhstan with 776,000 tons.

Saudi Arabia holds the largest share in barley imports. According to USDA data, barley imports by Saudi Arabia, which amounted to 10,4 million tons in 2015/16 season, will increase its imports to 11 million tons in 2016/17 season. China which ranks second with 5,8 million tons imported in 2015/16 season, is estimated to remain at 5 million tons in 2016/17 season. In global barley imports in 2016/17 season, these two countries are followed by Iran with 1,7 million tons, Libya with 1,3 million tons, Japan with 1,1 million tons and Morocco with 958,000 tons.

BARLEY PRODUCTION IN TURKEY Turkey is among the top 10 countries in global barley production. According to USDA data, Turkey produced 5,3 million tons of barley in 2014/15 season. The production volume reached 6,9 million tons in 2015/16 season, and it is expected to go down to 5,5 million tons in 2016/17 season.

The data of Turkish Statistics Institute (TUIK) also support these amounts, although the numbers are slightly higher. According to TUIK data, Turkey produced 5,8 million tons of barley in 2014, 7,3 million tons in 2015 and 6,3 million tons in 2016. The difference is believed to result from the fact that USDA data is published by seasons while TUIK data is published by years.

GLOBAL GRAIN PRODUCTION: MARCH 2017 An Increase by 96 Million Tons in Global Grain Production

International Grain Council (IGC) in its latest report published in February 23, declared its new forecasts for 2016/17 season. According to IGC report, the global grain production which was 2.006 million tons in 2015/16 season will reach 2.102 million tons in 2016/17 season. According to the data, IGC forecasted an increase by 88 million tons in total grain production in January, but it increased its forecast to 96 million tons in February. 342 million tons of this production will be subject to trade in 2016/17 season. Grain consumption, which was 1.984 million tons in 2015/16 season, is estimated to reach 2.069 million tons with an increase by 85 million tons.

WHEAT The estimated increase for wheat in the same report is 15 million tons. According to IGC report, global wheat production, which amounted to 737 million tons in 2015/16 season, will go up to 752 million tons in 2016/17 season. 169 million tons of this production will be subject to trade in 2016/17 season. Wheat consumption, which was 720 million tons in 2015/16 season, is estimated to reach 738 million tons in 2016/17 season with an increase by 18 million tons.

CORN Corn, which is the most produced grain around the world, is also expected to perform better in production. According to IGC report, global corn production, which amounted to 973 million tons in 2015/16 season, will go up to 1.049 million tons in 2016/17 season with an increase by 76 million tons. The amount of corn which will be subject to trade in 2016/17 season is estimated to remain at 136 million tons, like in 2015/16 season. In consumption, an increase by 65 million tons is expected (1.035 million tons).

RICE Although production of rice is estimated to increase, the forecasts are much lower as compared to other products. According to IGC February report, global rice production, which amounted to 472 million tons in 2015/16 season, will go up to 482 million tons in 2016/17 season with an increase by 10 million tons. 41 million tons of this production is estimated to be subject to global trade. The rice consumption which was 475 million tons in 2015/16 season, is estimated to be 482 million tons in 2016/17 season.

Articles in Research Category