The International Grains Council’s
February Grain Market Report pegs 2025/26 world total grains production at a
record 2,460m tonnes, while flagging a slightly tighter early outlook for
2026/27 wheat amid expectations of a smaller crop and rising consumption.
The International Grains Council (IGC) has trimmed its forecast for 2025/26 world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production by 1m tonne month-on-month to 2,460m tonnes, still the largest on record, according to its latest Grain Market Report released on 19 February 2026.
While the revision mainly reflects a lower barley estimate, the Council noted that smaller opening stocks leave total supply marginally tighter, with end-season carryover stocks for total grains now seen at 631m tonnes, down 3m tonnes m/m. Meanwhile, projected global grains trade was lifted 3m tonnes to 449m tonnes, supported by upgrades for maize, wheat, barley and sorghum.
RECORD PRODUCTION, STOCK REBUILD
CONTINUES
In the IGC’s latest balance sheet, 2025/26 total grains consumption is forecast at 2,415m tonnes, while carryover stocks are projected at 631m tonnes. The report shows total grains production at 2,460m tonnes and trade at 449m tonnes.
Source: IGC
WHEAT: 2026/27 OUTLOOK SLIGHTLY TIGHTER
Although the IGC stressed that forecasts are still tentative this early, it said the initial 2026/27 global wheat supply and demand outlook appears slightly tighter, citing expectations for a reduced harvest alongside further consumption gains.
For 2025/26, the report places world wheat production at 842m tonnes, trade at 209m tonnes, consumption at 823m tonnes, and carryover stocks at 282m tonnes.
Source: IGC
MAIZE: 2026/27 CROP MAY DIP YEAR-ON-YEAR
The Council also indicated that—based on early planted area assumptions and trend yields—next season’s maize crop may dip y/y. For 2025/26, the report shows maize production at 1,313m tonnes, trade at 196m tonnes, consumption at 1,298m tonnes, with carryovers at 305m tonnes.
Source: IGC
SOYBEANS
The IGC raised its 2025/26 soyabean production forecast by 1m tonne m/m, and—after a marginal downgrade to consumption—lifted projected carryover stocks by 2m tonnes m/m, while keeping trade unchanged at 187m tonnes (+1%). The report puts 2025/26 soyabean production at 428m tonnes, consumption at 431m tonnes, trade at 187m tonnes, and carryovers at 79m tonnes.
Source: IGC
RICE: RECORD OUTPUT, TRADE EXPECTED AT A
PEAK
IGC forecasts 2025/26 global rice production broadly steady m/m at a record 543m tonnes, while projecting 2026 (calendar-year) rice trade at a peak of 60m tonnes (+2%). Looking into 2026/27, the Council sees harvested area edging higher, but notes outcomes may depend heavily on state support amid soft international prices.
In the report, 2025/26 rice production is 543m tonnes, consumption 537m tonnes, trade 60m tonnes, and carryover stocks 193m tonnes (milled basis).
Source: IGC