In its September market report, the International Grains Council (IGC) projects a third consecutive record global grains harvest in 2025/26, with total output forecast at 2.4 billion tonnes (+4% y/y), driven by strong increases across most crops.
Global wheat production is pegged at 819 million tonnes (+2%), the highest on record. Much of the rebound comes from the eight major exporters, led by the European Union, although drought has restricted output in parts of Near East Asia. Wheat prices are currently hovering near five-year lows, weighed down by large crops, intense export competition, and weak early-season demand. On the consumption side, demand growth remains centered on food, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. However, wheat use in animal feed could face headwinds due to abundant soymeal and maize supplies.
Global maize output is forecast at an all-time high of 1.3 billion tonnes (+5%), largely driven by record yields and expanded acreage in the United States. Argentina, China, and Ukraine are also set to contribute significant gains, outweighing declines in Brazil and the EU. Consumption continues to rise in both feed and industrial uses, with Africa also seeing a modest rebound in food demand. International trade is projected at 192 million tonnes (+3%), with the U.S. expected to dominate exports, potentially hitting record shipments. Brazil is also likely to expand shipments but will face stiff competition amid growing domestic ethanol demand.
After two consecutive years of decline, barley production is expected to climb to 148 million tonnes (+3%), supported by stronger crops in Australia, the EU, and Russia. However, global consumption may fall to a seven-year low, pressured by substitution from maize and soymeal, and weakening demand for malting barley.
STOCKS: A MODEST RECOVERY, BUT WHEAT REMAINS TIGHT
Global end-season grains stocks are projected at 606 million tonnes (+3% y/y) in 2025/26, recovering slightly from the previous season’s decade-low but still below the five-year average. Maize and barley stocks are set to expand, particularly among key exporters, while wheat carryovers are expected to stay at a six-year low, with gains in major exporters offset by drawdowns in Asia.
Global grain trade is forecast at 438 million tonnes (+4% y/y), recovering from last year’s dip but below the 2023/24 peak. Wheat shipments are expected to rebound by 5% to 207 million tonnes, potentially the second highest on record, with Asia and Africa driving import demand. Russia will remain the largest exporter, though logistics costs and export duties may cap shipments. Maize trade will be shaped by U.S. dominance, Chinese import policies, and ethanol demand in Brazil.
