The FAO’s latest report projects a 5.6% decline in global grain trade for 2024/25, driven by reduced demand from China and export restrictions in major producing countries. The report also forecasts a 2.2% drop in global cereal stocks due to anticipated reductions in wheat and maize inventories.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) released an updated Cereal Supply and Demand Brief on February 7, 2025, revealing key projections and insights for global cereal production and trade. The FAO’s new forecast indicates a mixed outlook for major cereal crops in 2025. In the northern hemisphere, the winter wheat planting season has concluded, and early indications point to an increase in sowing in the European Union, particularly for soft wheat. France and Germany are expected to see the largest expansion in planting areas. Favorable weather conditions in the preceding months have set the stage for improved wheat yields in 2025, following a low-production year in 2024. However, drier-than-average conditions in February could slightly affect crop development. In contrast, wheat production in Russia is projected to decline slightly due to less favorable weather, combined with unusually warm temperatures in early 2025, which have reduced snow cover and increased the risk of winterkill. Meanwhile, India’s wheat production outlook remains positive, driven by remunerative prices and continued favorable weather conditions.
Looking to the southern hemisphere, where key coarse grain producers are gearing up for harvest in the second quarter of 2025, projections vary. In Argentina, maize area is expected to decline, largely due to concerns over stunt disease caused by leafhoppers, which impacted the 2024 crop. Despite this, favorable weather conditions in the coming months support a generally positive yield outlook. Brazil, facing firmer maize prices, may see a slight increase in maize plantings. However, the delayed sowing of soybeans could potentially push back the planting of the main safrinha maize crop.
GRAIN STOCKS TO DECLINE
FAO’s updated report also forecasts a 2.2 percent global decline in cereal stocks by the close of the 2025 season. This drop is primarily attributed to a significant contraction in maize stocks in the United States. Despite this, the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio for 2024/25 is expected to remain at a "comfortable level" of 29.8 percent.
The global utilization of cereals is forecast to rise by 0.9 percent to 2,869 million tonnes, driven mainly by higher maize use for animal feed. However, wheat utilization is forecast to increase only marginally to 797.2 million tonnes, with food consumption offsetting the decline in feed use.
GLOBAL GRAIN TRADE EXPECTED TO CONTRACT
FAO’s revised forecast for international cereal trade in 2024/25 predicts a 5.6 percent contraction, with global trade estimated at 483.5 million tonnes. This decrease is largely attributed to reduced demand from China, which is expected to import less barley, maize, and wheat. The FAO has also revised its wheat trade forecast downward by 1.5 million tonnes, bringing it to 196.7 million tonnes. China’s wheat import forecast has been lowered to its lowest level since 2019/20, as domestic demand for feed wheat is expected to decline. The European Union’s export prospects have been reduced due to tighter supplies, while Russia’s export forecast has also been downgraded due to a slowing export pace and the implementation of an export quota (set at 10.6 million tonnes) from mid-February to June 2025—the lowest export quota in five years.
The FAO has also revised its global cereal production forecast for 2024, lowering it to just under 2,841 million tonnes, marking a 0.6 percent decline from 2023. The downward revision is primarily due to a significant reduction in the USA maize estimate, where late-season moisture stress curbed yields below earlier expectations.
