Eng. Ahmed El-Sebaie
General Manager
Egyptian Swiss Group for Pasta, Milling, and Concentrates

Speaking to Miller Magazine, Ahmed El-Sebaie describes a crowded Egyptian flour market where intense competition is squeezing prices. Yet exports remain the strategic outlet: he highlights how shifting wheat sourcing, stronger stocks, and cost-focused operations are pushing Egyptian millers to defend—and expand—their footprint across Africa and the Middle East.

Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer and a key player in regional flour trade, faced a sharp contraction in flour exports in 2025, while domestic wheat production rose to around 10 million tons, helping reduce imports by about 8% to 13.2 million tons. 

In an interview for Miller Magazine’s February country profile on Egypt, Eng. Ahmed El-Sebaie, General Manager of Egyptian Swiss Group for Pasta, Milling, and Concentrates, one of Egypt’s major milling groups, outlined the sector’s dynamics amid these shifts.

El-Sebaie described a milling sector of roughly 157 mills, split between public-sector capacity producing subsidised flour and a private sector that remains fragmented and intensely competitive. He said this structure has encouraged price-based competition and pushed more players to pursue exports as an outlet for surplus capacity—particularly into Africa and the Middle East, where proximity, trade preferences such as COMESA, and humanitarian channels can shape demand.

On the import side, wheat sourcing diversified notably in 2025: Russia’s share fell from 74% to around 56%, while Ukraine’s surged from 13% to 31%, with smaller increases from France and declines from Romania. The overall import reduction, he said, reflected higher domestic production, stronger strategic stocks following heavy buying in 2024, softer demand pressures linked to reduced purchasing power, and some mills delaying purchases amid favourable earlier pricing.

He highlighted the flour market’s strategic importance in Egypt, supported by staple demand and flour-intensive industries such as pasta—whose consumption has gained as a cost-effective alternative to rice amid water constraints on rice cultivation—while expansion in biscuit and bakery industries continues to underpin demand.

Key challenges, he added, include intense domestic competition, weakening purchasing power, and renewed volatility risk from geopolitics in the Black Sea region. Looking ahead, he expressed optimism about Egypt’s export potential, citing large milling capacities, expanding African trade links, and operating-cost advantages versus regional competitors such as Türkiye—with 2026 priorities centred on delivering consistent quality at competitive prices for both domestic and export markets.

Below, El-Sebaie shares his assessment of the shifts reshaping Egypt’s wheat and flour markets and what they mean for 2026.

For readers who may not know Egyptian Swiss Group well, could you briefly introduce the company?

The Egyptian Swiss Group for Pasta, Milling, and Concentrates is one of the most prominent integrated industrial entities in the wheat milling and food industries sector in Egypt and the region. The group alone accounts for around 20% of Egypt’s annual flour exports and more than 15% of Egypt’s pasta exports.

This position reflects the group’s reliance on a strong production base and investments extending over three decades, enabling it to transform from a limited trading activity into a fully integrated industrial system serving both the domestic market and export destinations.

What are the group’s key production capacities and current investment base?

The group owns a fully integrated manufacturing system that includes two flour mills with a combined milling capacity of 1,500 tons per day, in addition to a pasta factory with a production capacity of 8,000 tons per month, and a tomato paste factory with a capacity of nearly 3,000 tons per month.

The group also operates wheat storage silos with a capacity of up to 50,000 tons, ensuring supply stability and uninterrupted operations in line with advanced industrial standards.

One of the mills is located near Mediterranean ports, while the other is close to Red Sea ports, providing flexibility in accessing different markets and managing any changes in shipping conditions.

The group plans to expand in the coming period by adding new production lines to increase output capacity, upgrading existing lines, expanding operating capacities, and introducing new products.

The Egyptian Swiss product portfolio includes wheat flour with multiple specifications serving household consumption and food industries, alongside pasta and tomato paste products manufactured according to strict quality standards and technical requirements that meet export conditions. This has strengthened the group’s presence in more than 50 countries worldwide.

On the export front, the group achieved strong growth in 2025, including doubling its exports, at a time when Egyptian flour exports recorded a noticeable decline. This performance reflects the resilience of the group’s operating model and its ability to expand in foreign markets, particularly in Africa and the Middle East.

What does Egypt’s flour milling landscape look like in terms of mills, ownership structure, and investment?

The number of mills in Egypt stands at around 157 mills nationwide, including 76 private-sector mills and 81 public-sector mills dedicated to producing subsidized flour. Total investments are estimated at EGP 60–65 billion, with annual milling volumes reaching approximately 9 million tons.

UNDERUTILISED CAPACITY TURNS INTO AN EXPORT OPPORTUNITY

Despite this, data indicates a decline in production compared with consumption. How do you explain this?

Domestic flour consumption exceeded 10 million tons in 2014, before declining to around 9 million tons currently, with the private sector accounting for about 6 million tons of production. 

The continuation of this trend necessitates a reassessment of the milling and distribution system to ensure a balance between cost and quality and to enhance the sustainability of mill operations amid current economic variables. At the same time, this situation opens the door for companies to expand exports and benefit from surplus production capacity and underutilized milling capabilities.

How has the development of domestic wheat production affected the market and reduced the import bill?

Egypt’s wheat production reached about 9.2 million tons in the 2024 season, rising to approximately 10 million tons in 2025, reflecting improved productivity and stable cultivated areas. 

Wheat-cultivated land stands at around 3.1 million feddans, while annual wheat consumption reaches approximately 20.4 million tons, requiring the state to continue importing the gap between local production and consumption needs.

In terms of agricultural efficiency, Egyptian wheat ranks fourth globally in yield per unit area, while Egypt ranks 15th worldwide among the largest wheat-producing countries.

A SHARP WHEAT SOURCING SHIFT

Wheat imports witnessed clear shifts during 2025. What are the key features of this change?

Egypt’s wheat import map has undergone a notable transformation. Dependence on Russian wheat declined from 74% to 56% during 2025, while Ukraine’s share jumped from 13% to 31%. France’s share increased from 1.2% to 3.6%, while Romania’s share declined from 6.6% to 4.6%. Egypt’s wheat imports also fell by about 8% last year to 13.2 million tons. Meanwhile, the cultivated wheat area is expected to increase by 13% this season to 3.5 million feddans.

What are the main factors behind the decline in wheat imports and market shifts?

The reduction in wheat imports in 2025 is attributed to several factors, most notably an increase in domestic production by 1 million tons compared with the previous year, higher strategic stock levels bolstered by strong imports in 2024, and the trading of imported wheat at prices below replacement cost, prompting some mills to delay purchases. Progress in Egyptian flour exports has also contributed to reshaping the domestic supply-demand equation.

CONSOLIDATION AND NEW ENTRANTS IN EGYPT’S MILLING SECTOR

What have been the most significant changes in Egypt’s flour sector in recent years?

Among the most notable changes has been the growth of flour exports from Egypt, alongside restructuring among some major market players, the entry of new participants, acquisitions of large companies, and the restructuring of several major entities, with some experiencing lower production volumes than in the past.

Currently, the market can be divided into public-sector mills producing 82% subsidized flour for the rationing system, alongside a fully private sector that largely relies on family-owned business models. There are still no multinational companies operating in Egypt’s flour market, making it attractive for foreign investors, particularly amid growing production volumes and demand.

Despite this, Egypt remains one of the world’s largest wheat importers, which naturally reflects the size of the domestic flour market.

How have competitive dynamics in Egypt’s flour milling industry evolved over the past 15 years?

Over the past fifteen years, many new players have entered the market, with numerous investors establishing new mills, particularly using advanced equipment and technology. This expansion reflects a widespread conviction in the sector’s importance, given sustained demand for flour and the opening of many biscuit, pasta, and bakery factories that rely heavily on flour.

This expansion significantly increased the number of mills, intensifying competition in the domestic market and prompting many companies to turn to exports as a natural outlet for surplus production capacity.

Why is the flour market considered strategic in Egypt?

The flour market in Egypt is highly strategic, as it is linked to an indispensable commodity. No society can cease consuming flour. As one of the world’s largest wheat importers, Egypt is also among the largest flour consumers.

In addition, Egypt has flour-intensive industries such as pasta manufacturing, where the country has achieved a strong export position. Pasta has also become a cost-effective alternative to rice, particularly given challenges related to rice cultivation and high water consumption, which led to reduced cultivated areas. As a result, reliance on pasta has increased, boosting flour consumption.

There has also been notable expansion in biscuit and bakery factories, whether by local companies or multinational firms operating in Egypt, further strengthening demand for flour and making the market one of the most promising.

Has the flour market witnessed major structural changes recently?

So far, Egypt’s flour market has not undergone radical structural changes. This in itself represents an opportunity, as markets that go long periods without major upgrades often hold significant growth potential. 

The market remains fragmented, with no single nationwide market leader. There are strong players in specific segments or regions, but no single dominant player across the entire country.

What are the key challenges currently facing the flour industry?

The first challenge is intense competition due to the large number of mills entering the market, sometimes leading to unstudied pricing and price wars that undermine profitability.

The second challenge relates to by-products, particularly bran, whose prices at times fail to reach optimal levels, affecting the economic viability of milling operations.

The third challenge is demand, as declining consumer purchasing power reduces demand and directly impacts sales volumes.

Volatility in the global wheat market is also a major challenge, especially amid potential crises in the Black Sea region, particularly between Russia and Ukraine, two of Egypt’s key wheat sources.

How has consumer behavior changed recently?

One of the most significant changes has been declining purchasing power, pushing consumers to seek cheaper options. Pasta consumption has increased as a lower-cost alternative to rice.

Bread, rice, and pasta act as substitutes for one another, and when prices rise, consumers gravitate toward the more affordable choices.

This shift has driven mills to rely more on improvers rather than importing higher-cost wheat such as US or Australian wheat, leading to increased reliance on Black Sea wheat while improving quality through enzymes, emulsifiers, and other improvers to enhance final flour performance.

EGYPT’S FLOUR EXPORT FOOTPRINT

What is the current picture for Egypt’s flour exports, and which markets are the key destinations?

Egypt exports around 1.2 million tons of flour annually to more than 70 countries worldwide, led by Somalia, Djibouti, Madagascar, Sudan, Yemen, Palestine, Syria, Eritrea and Saudi Arabia.

East African markets are among the most important destinations for Egyptian flour exports, supported by international agreements such as COMESA.

Egypt has also benefited from its geographic position and regional conditions, with flour exports to Sudan increasing during the war period, alongside exports to Libya and to Palestine and Gaza through international organizations such as the World Food Programme.

How do you assess the performance of Egyptian ports in supporting flour exports?

Contrary to some perceptions, Egyptian ports currently operate with smoothness and speed, accommodating export movements efficiently, with clear improvements in performance and procedures.

Who are the main regional competitors to Egyptian flour?

The main regional competitor is Turkish flour. Egypt’s competitive advantage lies in its ability to reduce operating costs, whether in labor, energy, or financing. 

Wheat is a global commodity with similar prices worldwide; the real difference lies in supply-chain management and reducing operating costs.

Can Egypt become one of the region’s major flour exporters?

Nothing is impossible. The clear progress Egypt has made in flour exports over the past two to three years proves this. The country has large milling capacities, existing mills, stable wheat imports, and no crises affecting supply.

With expanding international agreements, particularly in Africa, and no major internal obstacles, Egypt can reach very advanced positions and become one of the region’s leading exporters of flour and flour-based products.

Have recent changes in the wheat procurement system affected availability?

The recent change has had no impact whatsoever on wheat availability. The shift simply transferred procurement authority from the General Authority for Supply Commodities to the Mostaqbal Misr agency.

The strategy remains unchanged; only the execution mechanism has changed. The government purchases its needs, and the private sector purchases for itself, with no issues in availability. On the contrary, increased domestic wheat cultivation has reduced the government’s reliance on imported wheat. The system is running smoothly, with no supply shortages in the market.

Finally, what is your key message to the industry for 2026?

We operate in a vital and strategic product essential to food security and needed across all markets and segments. Accordingly, we are committed to providing high-quality flour at competitive prices to maintain our position in this important industry.