Amid a shifting global trade environment, the flour industry is recalibrating. This in-depth analysis—featuring IGC’s Alexander Karavaytsev, IAOM Eurasia Chairman Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy, and sector strategist Fabien Varagnac—explores the drivers behind the 2024/25 contraction and anticipates a rebound in 2025/26. Key themes include Africa’s rising flour consumption, Turkey’s role in global exports, shifting wheat origins, and the growing importance of traceability and energy efficiency—all explored in depth in this month’s cover story.

After a challenging year in global wheat flour trade, the industry stands on the brink of a potential rebound. Supply disruptions, shifting demand centers, and evolving trade policies defined the 2024/25 season—but early signals for 2025/26 point to renewed growth and reorientation across key regions.

In an exclusive article for Miller Magazine, Alexander Karavaytsev, Senior Economist at the International Grains Council (IGC), outlines the evolving contours of the global flour trade. According to Karavaytsev, wheat flour exports fell to an estimated 16 million tonnes in 2024/25—a 6% year-on-year decline, driven by reduced demand in Iraq, lower purchasing in the Americas and sub-Saharan Africa, and limited Turkish export availability. Yet, his projections for the year ahead are more optimistic: “The initial forecast suggests a strong recovery, with trade volumes projected to reach 17.5 million tonnes—the highest in nine years, if realized.”

TURKEY’S ENDURING LEADERSHIP

Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy

While these dynamics play out on the global stage, Turkey continues to occupy a central position in international flour trade. In a statement to Miller Magazine, Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy, Chairman of the International Association of Operative Millers (IAOM) Eurasia Region, shared valuable insights on the sector’s structural evolution and Turkey’s critical role: “Global wheat flour exports rose from 9 million tonnes in 2005 to 14.3 million tonnes in 2023, before a slight dip to 14 million tonnes in 2024,” said Ulusoy. “Turkey, which exported 1.9 million tonnes in 2005, closed 2024 with 3 million tonnes, maintaining its position as the world’s top flour exporter for 11 consecutive years. Today, one in every four exported flour bags carries Turkey’s signature.”

Ulusoy also shared key financial and structural data: Turkey generated $1.16 billion in flour exports in 2024, producing 11 million tonnes for domestic and international markets out of an annual capacity of 32 million tonnes. But not all of this capacity is utilized. “While the global average milling capacity utilization is around 65%, Turkey’s is just 49%—a clear sign of idle capacity,” Ulusoy noted.

Still, the domestic market remains robust. “Flour consumption is growing steadily in line with population increases,” he added. “Some companies are expanding capacity to improve economies of scale and eliminate inefficiencies.”

Commenting on the current wheat season, Ulusoy explained: “This is a drier year compared to the last two, but we are not facing a worst-case scenario. We expect wheat production to reach 18 million tonnes, with high-quality output despite drought. Our export target of 3 million tonnes of flour remains on track. Import channels are open, and we do not foresee any supply shortages.”

UNDERSTANDING THE REAL FACE OF MODERN MILLING

Beyond trade figures, the global milling industry is undergoing structural transformation. Fabien Varagnac, an independent milling sector consultant with nearly two decades of international experience, highlights the complexity and modernization of the industry. “The biggest misconception is that people still imagine a quaint windmill when they hear ‘flour milling,’” Varagnac observes. “In reality, today’s mills are high-tech, hyper-specialized operations that play a central role in food security and global nutrition.”

The global milling landscape itself is shifting—driven by population growth, urbanization, and changing dietary habits. Today, approximately 570 million tonnes of wheat are milled annually across more than 12,000 industrial mills worldwide—a scale that demands significant technical and human capacity.

Fabien Varagnac identifies three pressing challenges for millers:

• Diversification of wheat origins
• The centrality of quality and traceability
• The urgent need for energy efficiency

“Millers can no longer rely on a single wheat origin for the year,” he explains. “One of my clients in Africa had to switch between eight different origins in just 12 months—each requiring recalibration of operations.” This volatility means that today’s miller must be more than just technically skilled: “Millers must be part meteorologist, part geopolitical analyst, and part supply chain engineer. Knowing how to grind wheat is not enough anymore.”

AFRICA AND ASIA ON THE RISE

Both Karavaytsev and Varagnac agree: Africa is poised to be the next major growth engine in global flour trade. Although sub-Saharan Africa’s imports declined slightly to 3.1 million tonnes in 2024/25, the figure remains well above the five-year average.

The broader numbers confirm this trend. Across Africa, 265 million tonnes of flour-based products are consumed annually, with 5,870 industrial mills in operation and a 2.3% annual growth rate.

“Africa’s wheat consumption has grown 30% over the past decade,” says Varagnac. “Flour varieties are diversifying, consumer preferences are maturing, and new investments in milling are rising across the continent.”

In Southeast Asia, the shift from rice to wheat-based products such as noodles and baked goods is fueling demand. The region now consumes 31 million tonnes of flour annually, growing at 2.1% per year—reflecting both urbanization and dietary westernization.

Meanwhile, mature markets like Europe, North America, and Latin America are experiencing slower growth rates (+0.3% to +0.7%), focusing instead on efficiency, sustainability, and value-added innovation rather than pure volume expansion. 

The global flour market in 2025/26 will be shaped by more than just supply and demand curves. Trade policies, logistical constraints, investment climate and sourcing flexibility are all influencing how millers compete, survive, and grow. Karavaytsev’s sharp data insights, Ulusoy’s bold sectoral vision, and Varagnac’s hands-on operational analysis all point to one truth: the global flour trade is no longer just about moving tons—it’s about thriving under pressure, adapting with intent, and staying three steps ahead in an increasingly complex game.