A joint report by the World Bank, FAO, and WFP has issued a stark warning: prolonged and widespread droughts are intensifying across key agricultural regions, posing significant risks to global grain production, food markets, and food security. Titled “Drought Hotspots 2023–2025: Global Assessment Report”, the publication identifies alarming trends and outlines urgent recommendations for policymakers and industry stakeholders.
GRAIN PRODUCTION UNDER SEVERE PRESSURE
According to the report, drought has emerged as the leading driver of agricultural production shortfalls in many regions. In East Africa, five consecutive failed rainy seasons have decimated harvests, with maize and sorghum yields in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia falling well below average. In Southern Africa, poor rainfall in early 2024 has compromised maize output, particularly in Zambia and Zimbabwe—both critical suppliers to neighboring countries.
Meanwhile, in parts of Central America and South Asia, erratic precipitation and soaring temperatures have disrupted wheat, maize, and rice planting cycles. In Afghanistan, the report notes a 70% reduction in wheat production during past drought episodes. Similar risks loom over countries like India and Pakistan, where heatwaves have become increasingly frequent during growing seasons.
MARKET IMPACTS AND TRADE DISRUPTIONS
Drought-related crop losses are not only shrinking local food availability but also disrupting global grain trade flows. The report flags potential short-term price volatility for staple crops such as wheat, maize, and rice due to tightening supplies and increased import demand from drought-affected nations.
Several countries already reliant on grain imports—including Sudan, Yemen, and Lebanon—face worsening food access challenges as drought reduces their domestic capacity and depletes foreign currency reserves. The report warns of a rising risk of export restrictions, which could further destabilize grain markets.
STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITIES
The report highlights how prolonged droughts exacerbate structural vulnerabilities in agriculture-dependent economies. Smallholder farmers, in particular, are at the frontline of this crisis, often lacking access to irrigation, crop insurance, or drought-resistant seeds.
To build resilience, the report urges investments in early warning systems, water-saving technologies, climate-resilient infrastructure, and coordinated trade and food reserve policies. It also calls for strengthening global cooperation to mitigate cross-border impacts of extreme weather events on food supply chains.
OUTLOOK FOR 2025 AND BEYOND
The assessment concludes that unless rapid adaptation measures are adopted, drought will continue to be a dominant force in shaping global food systems. The authors warn that 2025 could be a pivotal year, with compounding risks from climate variability, geopolitical instability, and economic shocks putting further strain on grain supply and food access.