Speaking at the IAOM Eurasia Conference & Expo 2025 in Istanbul, Dr. Eren Günhan Ulusoy, Chairman of IAOM Eurasia and Chairman of the Board of Ulusoy Flour, presented a comprehensive outlook on the global flour trade. His address covered the current market picture, Turkey’s global leadership, lessons from Germany and Pakistan, and the key trends shaping the industry’s future. Ulusoy also shared his export forecast, projecting Turkey’s flour shipments at 2.7 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26 season.
According to the latest forecast from the International Grains Council (IGC), global flour trade is set to reach 17.4 MMT (wheat equivalent) in the 2025/26 season, equivalent to about 8.5% of total wheat trade. The market value stands at roughly $6 billion.
Ulusoy highlighted the long-term stability in this ratio. When world wheat trade stood around 130 MMT, flour trade was about 10 MMT — again, close to 8%. Today, with wheat trade surpassing 200 MMT, flour trade has expanded beyond 17 MMT while maintaining the same proportional share. “If global wheat trade rises to 300 million tons, I believe flour trade will reach 25 million tons. Historical trends clearly point in this direction,” he said.
Ulusoy also noted that flour prices typically follow wheat prices, but with a lag. They tend to adjust more slowly during both price surges and declines.
TURKEY’S GLOBAL LEADERSHIP IN FLOUR EXPORTS
Since the 2014/15 season, Turkey’s flour exports have closely mirrored global flour trade, underscoring its deep penetration into international markets. When global trade expands, Turkey grows; when it contracts, Turkey also feels the decline.
For 2025/26, the IGC projects global flour trade at 17.5 MMT (wheat equivalent), with Turkey contributing 5.3 MMT on a seasonal basis. However, Ulusoy provided a more conservative estimate, projecting Turkey’s flour exports at 2.7 MMT.
Iraq — once Turkey’s dominant market — has seen dramatic declines, while Syria has overtaken Iraq for the first time as Turkey’s top export destination. Other key markets include Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.
Ulusoy also drew attention to the consolidation in Turkey’s milling sector. The number of flour mills has fallen from 1,250 in the early 2000s to fewer than 400 today. Despite an installed capacity of 30 MMT, annual usage — including exports — is around 13 MMT, implying a capacity utilization rate of only 42%.
GERMANY: A MODEL OF STABILITY
Ulusoy pointed to Germany as a valuable comparison. With 8–9 MMT of milling capacity, 95% of it supplied by domestic wheat, and per capita flour consumption steady at 85 kg, Germany has built a strong and predictable milling industry.
Exports have steadily increased by about 50,000 tons annually, reaching 1.2 MMT today. Meanwhile, the number of mills has undergone dramatic consolidation: from 3,000 in the 1920s to 300 in the 2000s, and just 176 today. Despite fewer mills, production remains stable, exports are rising, and large-scale firms now control 55% of the market.
For Ulusoy, the lesson is clear: stable agriculture underpins a strong milling industry, which in turn supports a robust bakery sector.
LESSONS FROM PAKISTAN
In contrast, Pakistan illustrates the risks of instability. Despite producing 25–27 MMT of wheat annually, rapid population growth has increased reliance on imports. Foreign currency shortages and a heavily subsidized market have led to recurrent flour crises.
With more than 1,400 mills, Pakistan’s capacity utilization is only 38%. Once a notable flour exporter between 2009 and 2020, Pakistan has withdrawn from the export market since 2020 due to insufficient domestic supply. Ulusoy stressed that this is a cautionary example: “Without stable agriculture, a sustainable milling industry is impossible.”
FUNCTIONAL FLOURS ON THE RISE
The global flour market today is valued at $350 billion, with 70% still made up of traditional flour products. By 2030, however, this share is expected to fall to 54–55%, as demand for functional flours — gluten-free, whole grain, and specialized value-added products — accelerates. The functional flour segment, valued at $97 billion in 2023, is projected to reach $219 billion by 2030, growing at 8.5% annually. Ulusoy also pointed to the global bakery sector, projected to grow at 4.5% annually to reach $750–800 billion by 2035.
STRATEGIC MESSAGE
Closing his presentation, Ulusoy emphasized the strategic dimension of the industry:
“Flour exports are not just about trade — they are a strategic tool for food security. Strong agriculture equals a strong milling industry, and that means a strong bakery sector. Functional flours will define the future. And flour saves lives — as we have seen in war zones and disaster areas, it is always among the first relief items delivered. A strong milling industry ensures a more resilient supply chain against global shocks.”