Alexander Karavaytsev
Kıdemli Ekonomist
Uluslararası Hububat Konseyi (IGC)

FORECASTS FOR THE 2025/26 SEASON

In its regular Grain Market Reports (GMR), the International Grains Council (IGC) tracks developments in global wheat flour trade. Reflecting weaker-than-expected trade flows, its latest outlook for 2025/26 has been lowered significantly in recent months, with world trade now seen at a four-year low of 16.0 million tonnes, down from 16.5 million a year earlier and marking a second consecutive annual decline.

The projected 3% y/y drop mainly reflects reduced imports by sub-Saharan Africa, pegged at 2.6m t (3.3m). In that region, the resumption of milling operations in Sudan has prompted a shift back to wheat purchases, curbing demand for flour imports. After peaking at 1.4m t in 2024/25, Sudan’s flour imports are forecast to fall to 0.4m, closer to historical norms. As a result, flour’s share in all-wheat imports is set to drop to around 15%, from nearly 60% last season. The downtrend in flour imports by Ethiopia is also set to continue, while relatively strong demand is envisaged elsewhere in the region. 

Imports by Near East Asia are forecast slightly higher y/y, at 2.4m t, but with mixed trends across individual importers. Imports by Iraq are placed at 0.7m t, down by 0.5m y/y and potentially the lowest since 2007/08. The decline reflects expanding domestic milling capacity, supportive policy measures and increased local grain production. Additionally, significant wheat volumes were sourced in the first half of the current season, mostly from Australia and Russia, however, future trade may be affected by disruptions in the Persian Gulf. In contrast, Syria has increased flour purchases from Turkey following a poor harvest and ongoing disruptions to domestic milling, with 2025/26 arrivals projected at a record 1.0m, making it the second-largest importer globally.

A modest projected increase in flour deliveries to Far East Asia, to 5.8m t, mainly reflects rising demand for imported flour in Indonesia, though the volume remains a fraction of domestic production. Imports by Afghanistan, by far the world’s largest importer of flour, are seen little changed y/y. with supplies sourced primarily from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and increasingly from Russia.

On the export side, the forecast for Turkey is placed at 4.1m t, 0.5m higher y/y but below the five-year average amid slower international demand. Against this backdrop, some millers are reportedly diversifying into pasta production, including soft-wheat-based products. Similarly, exports by Egypt are forecast to recede to around 0.6m t (1.9m), including reduced deliveries to Sudan.

INITIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE 2026/27 SEASON

The initial outlook points to a modest uptick in global trade in 2026/27, to 16.2m t (16.0m), though much will depend on import margins, policy developments and security conditions in key importing countries.

Imports by Iraq and Sudan are expected to remain below past peaks, while Afghanistan’s purchases may edge higher, supported by evolving trade with Uzbekistan. Modest gains are also anticipated in sub-Saharan Africa, with Somalia expected to become the largest regional importer. However, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania, are actively developing domestic flour milling capacity.

Turkey’s exports are forecast to rise slightly, but will likely remain constrained by subdued demand from some key destinations. Egypt’s exports may also edge higher, supported by efforts to expand into new African markets. 

By contrast, tighter grain supplies are expected to limit exports from Kazakhstan, while shipments from Russia will depend on wheat export tax levels, with higher duties typically favouring product exports.

GLOBAL FLOUR TRADE ENTERS A STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT PHASE

Global wheat flour trade is projected to contract for a second consecutive year in 2025/26, falling to a four-year low, mainly reflecting structurally weaker demand from key importers such as Iraq and Sudan as domestic milling capacity expands and a shift towards wheat grain imports continues. While some growth is expected in some markets, including Syria, Indonesia and parts of South America, this is insufficient to offset declines elsewhere. Export opportunities remain concentrated among a limited number of suppliers, with Turkey retaining a dominant position, despite softer demand from some traditional buyers.

For 2026/27, trade is expected to recover only marginally, as structural changes in import patterns are likely to persist and as some developing countries continue investing in domestic milling industries. Overall, the medium-term outlook suggests that demand for wheat flour will be increasingly shaped by policy decisions, milling capacity expansion and regional security conditions rather than by underlying wheat supply alone.