According to the USDA’s October World Market Report, wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine, while strong in the early stages of the 2024/25 season, are projected to decline due to shrinking exportable supplies. The report highlights that although both countries benefited from competitive pricing compared to EU wheat, reduced production and export limitations are expected to curb shipments as the season progresses.
The USDA report notes that Ukraine exported 6.2 million tons of wheat in the first quarter of the 2024/25 season, nearly double its exports for the same period last year. Ukraine wheat production is adjusted up by 600,000 tons in October, now virtually unchanged from last year. Nevertheless, exportable supplies are at the lowest level in over a decade, limited by the smallest carry-in stocks in over 20 years. Despite a strong start and continued access to Black Sea ports, Ukraine’s forecasted exports for the entire season are set at 16 million tons, a reduction of 2.6 million tons compared to the previous year.
The report also emphasizes that Ukraine’s competitive export prices and “reduced competition from the European Union” have allowed it to expand its reach into key markets like Indonesia, Egypt, and Algeria. However, the USDA projects that Ukraine’s export pace will slow following the corn harvest, aligning with traditional seasonal patterns.
Russia, too, began the season with strong exports, recording 14.7 million tons of wheat shipped in the first quarter, according to USDA data cited in the report. “This is down slightly from the same period last year despite 5.6 million tons of exports in August—a record for that month,” the report specifies. Russia’s exports to Egypt, Kenya, and Nigeria surged as these markets faced limited competition from France due to low EU supplies. Yet, despite these gains, Russia’s export capacity may be constrained in the months ahead.
The USDA also indicates concerns within Russia over potential strains on domestic wheat supplies, as “the Russian Union of Grain Exporters stated its intention to appeal to the Ministry of Agriculture to revise the export quota distribution for the second half of the season.” Russia’s overall wheat exports are forecast at 48 million tons for 2024/25, a 7.5 million-ton drop from the previous year.