COCERAL, the European association of trade in cereals, oilseeds, and feedstuffs, has released its second forecast for the 2025 crop season, projecting total grain production in the EU-27+UK at 296.1 million tonnes. This marks a notable increase from the 278.2 million tonnes harvested in 2024, yet falls slightly below the 297.8 million tonnes estimated in December.
Wheat production (excluding durum) is expected to reach 137.2 million tonnes, up from 125.1 million tonnes in 2024 — an increase of nearly 10%. However, this latest projection remains below the 140.4 million tonnes forecasted in December. COCERAL attributes the year-on-year increase to expanded planting areas and a return to normal yield levels in Western Europe. Still, the outlook has been tempered by reduced sowing in major producers like France and the UK.
Soft wheat production in the EU-27 alone is estimated at 124.3 million tonnes, compared to 113.9 million tonnes last year — representing a 9% year-on-year increase. France, the EU's largest soft wheat producer, is expected to harvest 31.2 million tonnes in 2025, up from 25.5 million tonnes last year. This corresponds to a sharp 23% increase, supported by favorable weather and improved yield prospects. In Germany, another key producer, the forecast stands at 20.8 million tonnes, compared to 18.3 million tonnes in 2024.
Production estimates for several other EU countries are as follows:
- Poland: 12.7 million tonnes
- Romania: 10.7 million tonnes
- Lithuania: 4.5 million tonnes
- Spain: 5.8 million tonnes
Barley production in the EU-27+UK is forecast at 58.8 million tonnes, slightly higher than the 57.8 million tonnes recorded in 2024, but down from the 59.7 million tonnes previously projected. Corn production is set to rise to 63.3 million tonnes, compared to 58.9 million tonnes last year and above the 61.9 million tonnes forecast in December. Significant increases are anticipated in the Balkan countries, while modest declines are expected in Germany and France.
The rapeseed crop is forecast to rebound to 20.0 million tonnes in 2025, up from 18.0 million tonnes in 2024, driven by normalized planting in Romania and Bulgaria and yield recoveries in France and Germany. Nevertheless, this figure remains marginally lower than the 20.3 million tonnes expected in December.