Global wheat markets are showing early signs of price weakness, yet fundamental concerns around supply, quality, and logistics persist, particularly in key Black Sea exporting countries, according to a detailed analysis by Vivian Iroanya, published by S&P Global Commodity Insights

On August 5, the Platts Milling Wheat Marker (MWM) dropped to $238/mt, down 1.24% from July 24. This marked the first decline since the start of the new marketing year in July and was “primarily due to weaker demand,” the report noted. 

Still, traders remain cautious, citing ongoing risks in major origins such as Russia and Ukraine.

“There are great problems with delivering good quality wheat to the ports,” one seller said. “Logistics is a concern. It is impossible to load a boat,” added another.

Launched in June, the MWM is calculated based on the most competitive daily end-of-day value from the largest wheat export region, the Black Sea. It includes Russian 12.5% protein, Ukrainian 11.5% and CVB 12.5% FOB wheat. Since the official start of the wheat harvest in July, the MWM has been priced at parity to the Russian 12.5% protein.

VOLATILE YIELDS IN RUSSIA

Harvest outcomes in southern Russia have been mixed. According to SovEcon, Stavropol reported a record-high yield of 4.5 mt/ha, up 21% year-on-year. However, neighboring regions suffered setbacks:

• Rostov: 2.6 mt/ha – lowest since 2013, down 26%
• Krasnodar: 4.6 mt/ha – lowest since 2012, down 29% due to June droughts

Farmers in Russia remain reluctant to sell, hoping for higher CPT bids from exporters. As of early August, CPT 12.5% wheat was priced at $212/mt (RUB 17,000/mt). “It all depends on the farmers,” a trader remarked. “I’m waiting for lower prices inside Russia,” another exporter agreed.

UKRAINE FACES QUALITY ISSUES

Ukraine has harvested 11.4 million mt of wheat as of July 31, with average yields at 3.7 mt/ha, down from 4.4 mt/ha last year. Quality issues have emerged, especially in Western and Central Ukraine, where one producer admitted: “We didn’t manage to harvest it all in time.” Exporters say some Ukrainian farmers are also holding back, expecting better prices. “Producers are not that willing to sell, and the program is there, so you’ve got to pay up,” a Ukrainian exporter noted.

TURKEY FACES EXPORT HURDLES

Despite ongoing risks, buyers are staying cautious and anticipating further price drops.

“We all think September $230/mt or below will be available soon,” one Russian wheat buyer said.

A buyer in the UAE stated: “We remain cautious till then,” citing the need for more harvest-based quality analysis.

Meanwhile, Turkey, the world’s largest flour exporter, is encountering headwinds. Reduced demand from Iraq, which is supporting its domestic milling sector through subsidies and stricter import controls, has negatively impacted Turkish flour exports. Additionally, high domestic production costs and import taxes from countries like South Sudan are creating further challenges. As a result, Platts assessed the CIF coaster market for 12.5% wheat into Turkey at $233/mt on August 5, down 2.5% from previous levels.

WHEAT MARKET SNAPSHOT

• MWM average in July: $233.21/mt
• Ukrainian 11.5% wheat: Previously at a $6.4/mt discount, now narrowed to $3/mt in early August
• Romania: Harvested 12–13 million mt, over 90% expected to meet 12.5% grade
• Romanian-Bulgarian (CVB 12.5%) wheat: Averaged a $3.80/mt premium to MWM in July
• French wheat (Rouen): $1.80/mt discount to MWM
• Australian Premium White wheat: $26.20/mt above MWM
• Canadian Western Red Spring wheat (13.5%): $34.77/mt premium