Black Sea wheat prices have firmed since late March, but the increase has not translated into relief for exporters. Currency pressure in Russia, war-related freight risks and weak grower economics continue to weigh on the region’s wheat trade.

Black Sea wheat prices moved higher in recent weeks as geopolitical tensions added risk to an already fragile market. According to S&P Global Energy, Platts’ Milling Wheat Marker rose 2.25% to $238.50 per metric ton on April 14, after reaching $240/mt on March 24. Market participants linked that late-March spike to volatility triggered by the Middle East war, with prices briefly returning to levels last seen in August 2025.  

Yet firmer prices have not improved trading conditions across the region. In Russia, exporters have been squeezed by the strength of the ruble, which has reduced their ability to offer competitive dollar-based prices. Traders cited exchange-rate pressure as a key obstacle to concluding business. At the same time, higher fertilizer and diesel costs have weakened farm-level margins across the Black Sea, while in Ukraine the war continues to create labor shortages and logistical disruptions.

Despite these pressures, Russian wheat exports remain strong. S&P Global CERA estimated Russia’s wheat exports at 36.6 million metric tons as of April 10, about 3% above the same period last year. Full-season exports for July 2025-June 2026 are projected at 44 million mt, with April shipments expected to average nearly 4 million mt. Russian Grain Union data cited in the report showed that Egypt and Türkiye were the main buyers of Russian wheat so far in April, taking 172,000 mt and 146,500 mt respectively.

Source: S&P Global Energy

Demand, however, was described as steady rather than strong. Buyers remained active, but most major state tenders for old-crop wheat were largely covered. Saudi Arabia and Jordan were seen buying July shipments, while Algeria and Tunisia were mostly covered through June. Importers in Türkiye also pointed to expectations for a strong domestic harvest, which could limit additional import demand.

Ukraine has been slower to recover from the March price spike. Traders told S&P Global that Ukrainian wheat values had gained less than other Black Sea origins, partly because freight to destinations such as Egypt has risen into the mid-$20s/mt since the war began. S&P Global CERA forecasts Ukraine’s wheat exports at 12 million mt this season, with carryout stocks at 4.6 million mt. Since the start of April, around 362,000 mt of wheat has been shipped from Ukraine, mainly to Egypt, Spain, Djibouti and Algeria, while the export pace remains about 24% behind last year.

Ukraine 11.5% protein wheat was assessed at $232.50/mt on April 14, a $6/mt discount to the Platts Milling Wheat Marker. New-crop Ukrainian milling wheat was heard at $218/mt CPT, while feed wheat was indicated at $215/mt.

In Romania and Bulgaria, the market was also described as quiet. Romanian exports since the start of January included shipments to Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, while Bulgaria’s main destinations were Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt. Romanian traders said prices were holding in the low-$240s/mt, with old-crop Constanta CPT values heard at Eur205/mt and new-crop at Eur198/mt. The CVB 12.5% wheat market stood at a $2/mt premium to the Platts Milling Wheat Marker on April 14.

Source: S&P Global Energy, April 15, 2026