2022 has been a year of uncertainties for the global grain markets. The ongoing war initiated by Russia against Ukraine severely impacted the offer of grain worldwide. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began, exports of grain from Ukraine, as well as food and fertilizers from Russia, have been significantly hit. Both countries are among the most important producers of agricultural commodities in the world. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allows for Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea, was extended for an additional 120 days beginning November 19, 2022. However, there are concerns about the fate of the deal. What are the likely effects of a possible termination of the deal? What is the grain export prospect for Ukraine in the coming months? How the war has affected Ukrainian grain production? What is the outlook for Russian grain production? How sanctions have affected Russian grain exports? How is Russia’s wheat export pace since the conflict? In the first cover of the new year, we sought answers to these critical questions.

We have four great contributors for our ‘Black Sea impact on grain markets’ cover: Elizaveta Malyshko and Maryna Marynych, grain market analysts at UkrAgroConsult; Christina Serebryakova, Head of Analytical Department & Agricultural Commodities Broker at Atria Brokers and Natalja Skuratovic, Senior Sales Manager at CESCO EPC GmbH. In the following articles, they discuss the grain market situation in the Black Sea region and share initial forecasts for Ukraine and Russia.