Record harvests, tightening stocks, high input costs, and persistent trade tensions — the 2025/26 grain season is shaping up to be abundant, yet increasingly fragile. Experts from USDA, FAO, the World Bank, IGC, and GEOGLAM gathered at the IFPRI-AMIS webinar to assess key risks and opportunities across wheat, corn, and soy markets. With global corn stocks projected to tighten, soybean trade hinging on China’s policy path, and fertilizer prices remaining elevated, the markets are bracing for a season of plenty — but not without pressure.

As global attention turns to the 2025/26 crop harvest season, leading agricultural economists and analysts gathered virtually on May 13 for the IFPRI-AMIS webinar to assess the outlook for wheat, maize, and soybeans. The panel featured insights from Seth Meyer (USDA), John Baffes (World Bank), Monika Tothova, Di Yang, and Erin Collier (FAO), Nathan Kemp (IGC), and Brian Barker (GEOGLAM), presenting a wide-ranging and data-rich perspective on global grain markets amid economic and geopolitical turbulence.

CORN STOCKS WILL TIGHTEN DESPITE RECORD PRODUCTION

USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer, the keynote contributor, emphasized a critical shift in global corn dynamics. Despite record corn production forecast for the 2025/26 season—driven largely by expanded acreage in the United States and Brazil—ending stocks are expected to tighten. “Corn is one of the few AMIS commodities where we anticipate a drawdown in global carryout,” Meyer noted, citing robust demand growth in feed and trade.

U.S. corn output is projected to exceed 400 million metric tons, a near-record harvest that reflects favorable weather assumptions and increased acreage as farmers shift away from soybeans. Nonetheless, global consumption is expected to outpace supply gains, tightening inventories and supporting price strength.

SOYBEANS: TRADE POLICY IN THE SPOTLIGHT

Soybean markets are undergoing recalibration following the recent U.S.-China tariff reduction. Meyer revealed that USDA made last-minute revisions to its global projections to account for the easing of trade restrictions. China’s soybean imports are forecast to rise by 4 million metric tons to 112 MMT in 2025/26, reinforcing its dominance in global demand.

However, Meyer cautioned that South America remains the world’s growth engine for soybeans. Brazil continues to expand both planted area and yield, supplying an increasingly diversified global crush industry. “Even with stronger U.S.-China trade relations, U.S. soybeans face stiff competition from South American producers,” he said.

WHEAT: STABLE SUPPLIES TEMPER MARKET VOLATILITY

Unlike corn and soybeans, the wheat market appears well-supplied. Meyer described the global wheat balance as “flat,” with only marginal growth in stocks and production. Notably, the European Union is forecast to drive year-over-year output increases due to favorable growing conditions. Despite ongoing war in the Black Sea region—where over 30% of wheat exports originate—global wheat prices have shown resilience and relative calm. “Markets have adapted to instability in the Black Sea,” Meyer explained, attributing the stability to ample supply from alternative origins including Australia, and Brazil.

While commodity prices are broadly declining from pandemic-era peaks, input costs have remained elevated. “This mismatch is squeezing farmers’ margins worldwide,” Meyer stressed. The price decline, paired with sticky expenses in fertilizer, fuel, and logistics, has heightened concerns around farm profitability.

JOHN BAFFES: COMMODITY PRICES STABILIZING, BUT FERTILIZERS REMAIN HIGH

World Bank Senior Economist John Baffes painted a cautious macroeconomic picture. Global GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.8% in 2025, down from 3.3% in 2024, while inflation and interest rate volatility continue to shape agricultural input costs. According to Baffes, fertilizer prices remain 40% higher in real terms compared to pre-pandemic levels — largely due to export restrictions from China. “The broader commodity market has stabilized after the shocks of COVID, the Ukraine war, and the Middle East crisis,” Baffes stated. However, he emphasized that fertilizers are “an exception to the trend,” and continue to present an upward cost risk for farmers globally.

WEATHER EXTREMES ARE IMPACTING FIELD ACCESS AND YIELDS

Brian Barker of GEOGLAM provided an overview of global crop conditions using satellite monitoring data. He noted favorable harvests in Brazil and the U.S., but flagged crop stress in Ukraine, Central Asia, and parts of Africa, due to erratic rainfall and excessive moisture. “In places like Argentina and Southern Africa, too much rain is now a bigger problem than drought,” Barker explained. He also warned of desert locust outbreaks affecting parts of North Africa, and short-term drought concerns in China’s Henan province, one of the country’s major wheat belts.

Nathan Kemp, Senior Economist at International Grains Council (IGC), confirmed that IGC’s projections broadly align with USDA’s, particularly on record maize output expected in 2025/26. However, he noted a slight divergence on global ending stocks, as IGC anticipates a modest increase, while USDA sees tightening. Kemp also underlined that Ukraine could emerge as a key supplier, particularly for non-GMO corn to the EU, amid evolving trade policies. He cautioned, however, that weather in Ukraine and farmer planting decisions remain highly uncertain.

FEED DEMAND REMAINS THE WILD CARD

FAO economist Erin Collier emphasized that while wheat supplies are relatively ample, demand recovery remains tepid. “Feed use is the biggest swing factor in the wheat balance sheet,” she said. Collier also noted that while wheat markets have adjusted to post-2022 disruptions, there’s still potential for volatility if weather or policy surprises emerge. She pointed out that despite lower U.S. wheat prices, export sales had yet to rebound significantly, and added that the EU's projected production growth is the primary driver of optimism for 2025/26.

SOYBEAN TRADE HINGES ON CHINA’S FEED SECTOR AND POLICY STABILITY

FAO analyst Di Yang focused on China’s soybean demand, calling it the “million-dollar question” for the 2025/26 season. While China has promoted domestic soybean planting and feed ration adjustments, Di confirmed that imports are still expected to remain high. He cautiously agreed with USDA’s projection of 112 million metric tons of Chinese soybean imports, noting that the pork sector's stability and policy clarity on tariffs and biofuel incentives will be decisive. “If domestic feed demand rises and tariffs stay low, U.S. soybeans could regain ground,” he said.

GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY STILL VULNERABLE TO TRADE POLICY SHOCKS

FAO’s senior economist Monika Tothova stressed the importance of international coordination. “Geopolitical tensions and trade policy shifts continue to disrupt market predictability,” she said. Tothova reiterated the need for greater transparency and cooperation, especially as extreme weather and fertilizer volatility remain top concerns for developing countries.

JOE GLAUBER: MARKETS HAVE LEARNED TO LIVE WITH TURMOIL

Joe Glauber, former Chief Economist at USDA and now Senior Research Fellow at IFPRI, noted that markets have become more resilient to geopolitical shocks compared to earlier crises. “After the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and several rounds of trade disruptions, commodity markets seem better prepared to adjust,” he said. 

The 2025/26 season is shaping up as a “plenty but fragile” year: production is high, but so are risks. Tight corn stocks, uncertain Chinese soybean demand, high fertilizer costs, and weather extremes all contribute to a fragile market balance. As Meyer succinctly put it, “There’s plenty of crop around — but margins are tight, and weather still has the final word.”