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2014/15 World Grain Yield

22 December 201410 min reading

According to the 27th November dated last report of the International Grain Council IGC; the expectation of increase in production in 2014/2015 still remains although to a lesser extent. Increasing the production estimations for the season of 2014/15 by 2 million tons from that of the last month, IGC forecasts the total grain production to be 1.990 million tons in the present season of 2014/15. The increase in the total grain production worldwide over the last two years has enabled the prices to obtain a much more stable course.

rekolte The global grain industry entered the 2014/15 season which starts in June with the expectations of increase following the record high levels of production in 2013/14. The increase in the total grain production worldwide over the last two years has enabled the prices to obtain a much more stable course. According to the 27th November dated last report of the International Grain Council IGC; the expectation of increase in production in 2014/2015 still remains although to a lesser extent. Increasing the production estimations for the season of 2014/15 by 2 million tons from that of the last month, IGC forecasts the total grain production to be 1.990 million tons in the present season of 2014/15. When compared, this amount is 4 million tons less than 1.994 million tons of production achieved in 2013/14 but when the last 4 years are taken into consideration, the production is still at record high levels. There is a significant increase expected in the year-end stocks when compared with that of the last year. According to IGC, the year-end stocks that have retreated to 335 million tons in the 2012/13 season have escalated up to 403 million tons by means of the exceptional increase in production in 2013/14. The 2014/15 forecast indicates that the year-end stocks are to reach a record high level with 429 million tons. WORLD WHEAT YIELD According to the data of International Grain Council (IGC); the world wheat production which was 655 million tons in the 2012/13 season has reached 713 million tons with an exceptional rise of 58 million tons. The forecast with regard to 2014/15 is that the increase in production will continue. When compared with last year, this increase is estimated to be around 4 million tons according to IGC. In other words, the world wheat production will be approx. 717 million tons in 2014/15. On the other hand USDA projects that the increase will be much higher. The data of the US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) with regard to the recent years’ world wheat production verifies the IGC’s data. However, USDA’s estimations regarding the season of 2014/15 are much higher. According to the data of USDA, the world wheat production which was 714 million tons in 2013/14 will reach 722 million tons by an increase of 8 million tons in 2014/15 On country basis, the world’s demand for wheat is considered to be supplied mostly by China, India, Russia and the USA. According to the USDA data, 491 million tons of the 722 million tons of the projected world wheat production for 2014/15 will be supplied by these four countries (155 million tons by China, 126 million tons by India, 59 million tons by Russia and 55 million tons by USA). These four countries are followed by Canada with 29 million tons, Pakistan with 25 million tons, Ukraine with 24.5 million tons, Australia with 24 million tons and Turkey with 15 million tons. European Union countries have a total production of 155 million tons. When USDA data are analyzed; the biggest fall in the wheat production in 2014/15 will be in Canada by 8.3 million tons. The decrease of wheat production in the USA, Australia and Turkey are around 3 million tons. An increase in wheat production can be observed in the top 10 countries in the world wheat production list. When compared with the last season, an increase of 6 million tons is expected with regard to the year-end stocks of wheat. According to IGC, the year-end stocks that have retreated to 169 million tons in 2012/13 have risen to 187 million tons by means of record high increase in production in 2013/14. The 2014/15 projections indicate that the stocks are to reach the exceptional level of 193 million tons. The region determining the wheat yield to the greatest extent is the northern hemisphere. The harvest that is almost over in the northern hemisphere indicates that the yield is likely to be somewhere between 715 and 720 million tons. In the southern hemisphere where the harvest is not yet over, the productions in Australia, Argentina and Brazil may have influence the results but a drastic change is not expected. WORLD RICE YIELD The world rice production has not experienced exceptional ups and downs in the last three years including the season of 2014/15. According the IGC data; the highest rise in the recent years took place in 2011/12. The world production that was 448 million tons in 2010/11 had reached 467 million tons by an increase of 19 million tons in 2011/12. Reaching 472 million tons by an increase of 5 million tons in the following 2012/13 season, the world rice production has maintained its growth last season and reached 476 million tons. The expectations are at this level for the new season. Announcing last month the world rice production projection for 2014/15 to be 476 million tons, IGC has dropped its projection by 1 million with its 27th November dated last report. Including the forecasts for 2013/14, the USDA data regarding the rice production are more or less the same with IDC’s data. On country basis, the world’s demand for rice is considered to be supplied mostly by China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Bangladesh. According to the USDA data, 246 million tons of the 475 million tons of the projected world rice production for 2014/15 will be supplied by China and India (144 million tons by China, 102 million tons by India). These two countries are followed by Indonesia with 36.5 million tons, Bangladesh with 34.6 million tons, Vietnam with 28.2 million tons and Thailand with 20.5 million tons. USDA envisage for 2014/15 is that the rice production in China will increase by 2 million tons when compared with that of the last year and the rice production in India will decrease by 4 million tons. The other prominent countries’ production amounts are estimated to be around the same levels with the last year’s productions. When compared with the last season, an increase of 6 million tons is expected with regard to the year-end stocks of rice. According to IGC, the year-end world rice stocks that have retreated to 109 million tons in 2012/13 have retreated to 108 million tons due to the increase in consumption in 2013/14. The 2014/15 projections indicate that the retreat in the stocks is going to prevail. According to IGC the year-end stocks will stay at 102 million tons in the new year. The forecast of USDA with regard to the year-end stocks is less than the IGC’s estimations. According to the USDA data, the year-end stocks that were 107 million tons at the end of 2012/13 will decline to 99 million tons in 2014/15. The region determining the rice yield to the greatest extent is again the northern hemisphere just as for the wheat. But the rice harvest starts later than wheat. And the harvest initiation varies greatly depending on the locations where the major manufacturers are. For example, whereas the harvest starts in June in a part of China, it can start in October in another part. Therefore giving a range for the rice yield now is not something too right. Along with the harvest, the amount of the yield is likely to follow a different course in the upcoming periods. WORLD CORN YIELD Corn which for a long period has stayed behind wheat and paddy in terms of production is now the grain which is cultivated and harvested the most in the world. The cultivation area of corn which has many areas of use in various industries is showing a progress since 2000 along with the growth in demand in these industries (food, feed, starch, cosmetics, seed, nuts, frozen food). Especially in the recent years, it is estimated that the world’s cultivation areas of corn has reached 170-170 million hectares from 150 by an increase around 10%. The increase in the cultivation areas and the progress in the yield have surely reflected on the production and the increase trend for wheat in 2013/14 has been observed for corn as well. According to the data of IGC; the world corn production which was 860 million tons in the 2012/123 season has reached 984 million tons with an exceptional rise of 124 million tons in 2014/15. The forecast with regard to 2014/15 corn production is that it will maintain its record high levels. Having announced in October the world corn production estimation to be 980 million tons in 2014/15, IGC have raised the number by 2 in the November forecast. Accordingly, the world’s corn production will reach 982 million tons. Although this amount indicates a decrease of 2 million tons when compared with 2013/14, it still remains as a record high level when compared with previous years. However USDA envisages the increase to be much higher. According to the USDA data; the world corn production which was 989 million tons in 2013/14 will reach 991 million tons with an increase by 2 million tons in 2014/15. On country basis, the world’s demand for corn is considered to be supplied mostly by the USA, China and Brazil, as it was the last year. According to the USDA data, 581 million tons of the 991 million tons of the projected world corn production for 2014/15 will be supplied by the USA and China (366 million tons by the USA, 215 million tons by China). These two countries are followed by Brazil with 75 million tons, Ukraine with 27 million tons, Mexico with 23 million tons, Argentina with 22 million tons and India with 21 million tons. European Union countries have a total production of 73 million tons. According to the USDA data, the greatest increase in corn production when compared with last year will be in the USA with 12 million tons. There are falls and rises in other countries that do not exceed 3 million tons. Along with the increase in corn production, the rise in the year-end stocks is estimated to continue. According to the IGC data, the year-end stocks that have escalated to 176 million tons last year, will reach 195 million tons with an exceptional increase of 19 million tons in 2014/15. The estimations of USDA with regard to the year-end stocks are lower when compared with that of IGC. According to USDA data, the year-end corn stocks which were 172 million tons in 2013/14 will reach 192 million tons in 2014/15.
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